The majority of humans have little to no climate footprint, rather than the unconstrained growth of people, the more important category of analysis for climate impact is the unconstrained growth of production and consumption. The world can support many more crofters than rich consumers in capitalist economies.

Don't worry about population. Mother Nature has the requisite ways and means to lower the population to sustainable levels. Just hope you're not around when she does it.

We also have the means. Educate women. Give them opportunities to contribute creatively other than childbirth. Population growth stagnates. It's not hypothetical. It's called Europe.

Projections of population growth may not be realized. Global warming is likely to have significant effects on food production, disease rates, available water for drinking and agriculture (and industry), reproduction, and so on. Worse for everyone concerned, 2070 will be another 50 years past peak oil. The whole world will be very hungry for that dense energy source. The greening of the Sahara, never mind stopping the progression of desertification on the southern edge of the Sahara, is not something we will be able to engineer.

Are you familiar with the "wet bulb" measurement? It references how fast moisture evaporates at given temperatures and humidity. Human beings can not survive outside when the wet bulb temperature is above 98. [>98º + high humidity] Why? Because our sweat doesn't evaporate, we can't cool off, and our internal temperature starts to rise, and we go into heat shock and die. A high wet bulb temperature means that much less time outdoors is available for agricultural work, hence less food production. Who will be affected? Everyone in tropical and sub-tropical areas, including the southern US.

Yes; affluent people reproduce less than poor people. Why, exactly, isn't clear. Maybe affluent people are too busy earning affluent incomes to raise children. Maybe affluent people would rather be affluent than spending hundreds of thousands of euros on children. Maybe child survival rates are so high that 1 child is enough. Maybe sophisticated European metrosexuals just can't be bothered. Europe's population rate is below replacement levels which is a good thing in terms of ZPG, but is very bad for the economy. After all, somebody has to work in the factories, distribution centers, transportation, hospitals, nursing homes, farms, etc. Therefore, immigrant labor is necessary. Fortunately for affluent people in Europe, North America and parts of Asia there are plenty of inexpensive laborers available.

I'm not knocking immigration here (I do that elsewhere). I'm just pointing out that the virtue of low birth rates here and there is limited, because the population of laborers is still needed by affluent people to maintain affluence.

Educate women — frank

Yes. That has been demonstrated many times that educated women bear fewer children.

Population growth was a big bogaboo in the 1970's. Now it isn't. Only African countries might be worried.

The thing is that likely in this Century we will see Peak Human population and then the global population will shrink. Already a lot of countries are decreasing in population. The biggest reason for this is the rise of prosperity: we simply don't need offspring to take care of us anymore. And as Bitter Crank said, women are educated, their role isn't to produce as much offspring as they can as before.

Above all, China is has a fertility rate of 1,635 (children per women), hence China's population will stop growing. Here are actually all the countries that have a problem that their fertility rate is below 2, which would sustain the population size:

Bahrain 1.998 children per woman
Jamaica 1.991 children per woman
French Polynesia 1.99 children per woman
Ireland 1.98 children per woman
Uruguay 1.979 children per woman
New Zealand 1.974 children per woman
France 1.973 children per woman
Georgia 1.971 children per woman
Kuwait 1.967 children per woman
Vietnam 1.946 children per woman
Iceland 1.921 children per woman
Guadeloupe 1.92 children per woman
Sweden 1.909 children per woman
Saint Vincent And The Grenadines 1.902 children per woman
North Korea 1.893 children per woman
United States 1.886 children per woman
Qatar 1.881 children per woman
Martinique 1.881 children per woman
United Kingdom 1.871 children per woman
Brunei 1.848 children per woman
Australia 1.832 children per woman
Norway 1.827 children per woman
Colombia 1.827 children per woman
Belgium 1.799 children per woman
Barbados 1.799 children per woman
Aruba 1.796 children per woman
Finland 1.782 children per woman
Chile 1.765 children per woman
Costa Rica 1.764 children per woman
Denmark 1.762 children per woman
Bahamas 1.755 children per woman
Russia 1.751 children per woman
Netherlands 1.75 children per woman
Trinidad And Tobago 1.73 children per woman
United Arab Emirates 1.725 children per woman
Cuba 1.716 children per woman
Belarus 1.706 children per woman
Brazil 1.705 children per woman
Albania 1.705 children per woman
Lebanon 1.704 children per woman
Lithuania 1.661 children per woman
Estonia 1.659 children per woman
Montenegro 1.657 children per woman
Slovenia 1.638 children per woman
China 1.635 children per woman
Iran 1.621 children per woman
Serbia 1.62 children per woman
Armenia 1.601 children per woman
Luxembourg 1.594 children per woman
Bulgaria 1.584 children per woman
Latvia 1.57 children per woman
Czech Republic 1.566 children per woman
Canada 1.563 children per woman
Ukraine 1.557 children per woman
Switzerland 1.549 children per woman
Macedonia 1.546 children per woman
Romania 1.54 children per woman
Austria 1.511 children per woman
Italy 1.491 children per woman
Japan 1.478 children per woman
Malta 1.475 children per woman
Puerto Rico 1.47 children per woman
Germany 1.47 children per woman
Slovakia 1.462 children per woman
Thailand 1.458 children per woman
Croatia 1.446 children per woman
Saint Lucia 1.444 children per woman
Mauritius 1.433 children per woman
Hungary 1.397 children per woman
Spain 1.391 children per woman
Bosnia And Herzegovina 1.386 children per woman
Macau 1.347 children per woman
Cyprus 1.337 children per woman
Hong Kong 1.326 children per woman
South Korea 1.323 children per woman
Greece 1.302 children per woman
Poland 1.29 children per woman
Singapore 1.26 children per woman
Portugal 1.241 children per woman
Moldova 1.23 children per woman
Taiwan 1.218 children per woman

“Yes; affluent people reproduce less than poor people. Why, exactly, isn't clear.”

It is clear enough. Poorer people need children to provide for them, and generally speaking child mortality has been, until recently, relatively high in many places (as you mentioned).

Of course religious attitudes, medicine, education pay into this too, other than the need for an extra pair of hands to bring the money in (call it the natural pension scheme if you will; cynical view but it’s the practical truth in many places around the globe).

one of your comments addressed the issues I raised;

1, will sub-Saharan Africa be able to cope with more than doubling its population within 35 years and
2, What would be the effect on its environment and greenhouse emissions.

Immigration is definitely not a solution to a problem of this scale even if it was not fiercely resisted by the hosting countries, It is worth noting that infant mortality nowadays even on the poorest African countries is less than 10%, so fertility of 5-6 children is not justified on grounds of being looked after in old age.


I wish I could be as optimistic as you are.

Incidentally, China would not be where it is now were it not for the one-child policy/

Also, please bear in mind that automation reduces the need for manual labour. A Mac restaurant today employs less than half the number of one in the 80s. A car factory of say 4000 workers produces more cars than one which employed 20,000 in the 70s. Robotics makes major inroads been into the caring services,

Incidentally, China would not be where it is now were it not for the one-child policy/ — Jacob-B

I'm not so sure.

You see, rising prosperity makes population growth to decrease. India hasn't had any kind of similar policies, yet look at the change:



China has basically made a real short term pension problem into the future.