• Punshhh
    932
    but if Labour/Lib Dems vote for eachother to beat the Tories it could make a large difference.
    Yes, I don't think it will happen though. Although as I mentioned a few pages back, there aren't all that many seats where Labour and Lib Dems overlap( marginal). Whereas there are a lot where Tory's and Lib Dems overlap. Also Any seat which goes to a party other than the Tory's is a seat going towards preventing a Tory majority( apart from any Brexit party seats, although they have never won any as yet, I doubt they will win more than two or three).

    Oh also about the poll tracker, the BBC has the polltracker on their website, along with a list of all the constituencies with the share of the votes from the 2017 election. They frequently tell their viewers to go to the website and have a look. It's part of their drive to get their viewers to be more interactive.
  • Punshhh
    932
    I assume that you Punshhh aren't a conservative, so I guess you are the people helping Johnson getting the conservatives to support him with those kind of remarks... if you would be a reporter.

    Yes, I support the Greens, but my vote like many many others won't count, as I live in a safe Conservative seat. I doubt my remarks would sway any voters on this forum (which is the only one I write on). I doubt there are any subscribers on this forum who support Johnson, or could be swayed to do so by the remarks I make. Also the division between leave and remain is so deep, that to a large extent it doesn't matter anymore what anyone says, or does. This is why Johnson can get away with his behaviour, which is very uncharacteristic of the behaviour of a PM in this country.

    In reference to the media, it is almost entirely anti Corbyn and is only slightly critical of Johnson. It's more a case of the media not knowing how to deal with the unprecedented way the government is behaving, allowing it to get away with far more than would usually be the case. There is a very good commentator on this issue called Peter Obourne, I will post a link to his blog/articles tomorrow.
  • Punshhh
    932
    Graph of age demographic.
    This is why the Conservatives are worried, it's only a matter of time before they become a party with no chance of winning an election. As I see it, they began to nose dive following the Credit Crunch, especially when austerity began to bite.

    IMG-8881.png
  • Benkei
    2.2k
    Unless it reflects a change of opinion related to age. One way to tell is whether there are older graphs like this and if younger support for conservatives was higher there or not.
  • unenlightened
    4.1k
    Unless it reflects a change of opinion related to age.Benkei

    I'm way too philosophical to actually do the research, but it makes intuitive psychological sense that young people are radical and know everything better than we old-fogies who have become set in our ways and cannot believe there is anything better than our wisdom born of experience.

    Or to put it another way, having spent most of a lifetime accumulating a small stash, the olds are not about to vote to give it all to young wastrels.
  • Punshhh
    932
    Unless it reflects a change of opinion related to age. One way to tell is whether there are older graphs like this and if younger support for conservatives was higher there or not.
    I have had a look for older graphs, I haven't found anything easy to read before 2015 so far, but it looks like this trend has been building for about a decade. Before that the split was more even between the age groups.

    I see it as inevitable due to the fall in living standards and the growing mistrust in the Thatcherite model, which has had some negative effects over the last 20 years. The older age group is still living in the Thatcherite era and have retained the wealth thereof. But the younger generations are increasinly feeling disenfranchised, poorer, with poorer prospects. There is a clamour for a redistribution of wealth which is unfairly balanced in favour of the older generation.

    Interestingly the older generation is also a lot more in favour of Brexit, than the younger generation. That graph and this one about the referendum demonstrate how there is a deep generational divide, in which the older generation wants to give the younger generation what they don't want and then go and die of old age and leave them with the mess to clear up.
    IMG-8882.png
  • Tim3003
    163
    Oh also about the poll tracker, the BBC has the polltracker on their website, along with a list of all the constituencies with the share of the votes from the 2017 election. They frequently tell their viewers to go to the website and have a look. It's part of their drive to get their viewers to be more interactive.Punshhh

    I found this. But what I was looking for was some ranked listing of the marginals, with the percentage vote of each party, including the Lib Dems (and Ukip if it's from 2017).The listings of swing-seats I've seen only cater for close Tory-Labour marginals. I don't think much of a Labour/Tory swing is likely. It's the movement of votes to the big 2 parties from the 2 smaller ones which I think may be important. A big tactical Lib Dem to Labour swing could turn a relatively safe Tory seat to Labour, and the reverse could turn some safe Tory seats to Lib Dem.
  • Punshhh
    932

    This website shows targeted marginals for the main party's. It's difficult to work out where Labour and Lib Dems overlap, because it doesn't show the third party's position in a marginal, only the two main contenders. It looks as though there is not much overlap though.

    On the Andrew Marr show on Sunday Jo Swinson said, she thought the Tory's were likely to win at the moment and almost, but not quite hinted that she may do a pact of some sort with Labour. I don't know if, or how candidates can be pulled now that they have been submitted. My worry has always been that the Brexit Party would pull all their Candidates the day before the poll, but I don't know if, or how this would happen.
  • Punshhh
    932
    The Conservative party released their manifesto yesterday, it was incredibly underwhelming and launched on a Sunday afternoon. It looks as though they don't want to make a gaff and will just rely on the leave vote to push them over the line. Commentators say this is because in 2017 they made a manifesto gaff which lost them their majority, the dementia tax.

    To me this looks weak and cowardly, while displaying indifference to the important pressing public service crisis we are enduring now following 9 years of unpopular austerity. The problem is people might think austerity is not over, which the conservatives are claiming and they would be right.
  • ssu
    1.7k
    In reference to the media, it is almost entirely anti Corbyn and is only slightly critical of Johnson. It's more a case of the media not knowing how to deal with the unprecedented way the government is behaving, allowing it to get away with far more than would usually be the case.Punshhh
    Well, I could say the media has been a bit more than slightly critical of Johnson, but that is a matter of opinion. Yet do notice that both Corbyn and Johnson have picked up support for themselves.

    Also the division between leave and remain is so deep, that to a large extent it doesn't matter anymore what anyone says, or does. This is why Johnson can get away with his behaviour, which is very uncharacteristic of the behaviour of a PM in this country.Punshhh
    I think that this deep division is happening very much everywhere. It's happening because of populism. One of the core principals of populism is to separate people to "us" and "them". Trying to search a consensus or try to search for a middle ground isn't done, it's actually intentionally avoided as "the other" is depicted to be so bad. And naturally the whole Brexit -process is a dividing cause. You could have just voted "yes" or "no" for brexit. That divides the people into two distinct categories.

    Intentionally or unintentionally the dividing rhetoric and politics creates more lasting "camps" on the issue you can start to see generational, societal, differences as you Punshhh note in your later comments in this thread.
  • Punshhh
    932
    The chief rabbi and the interviewee on the Today program, are explicitly telling the population to vote for the Conservative party today. It's true that there is an anti-Semitic problem amongst members of the Labour Party, but what are they suggesting is going to happen if Corbyn forms a government in a hung parliament?
    It is implicit in the remarks that people who are not Jews should secure a conservative government to assuage a feeling of unease amongst the Jewish population.
    So Johnson's racism and policies is going to improve the degree of unease?

    The problem is this is dog whistle populism which can't be challenged, because of its sensitivity. It may tip the balance between a sensible resolution to the Brexit issue, which would begin to heal the division and start to bring the country back together. In favour of an intensification of the division and chaos, plunging the country into a populist nose dive into Trump, or Putins hands.

    It is grossly irresponsible for a religious leader to intervene in this way.
  • Punshhh
    932
    I agree entirely with your observations on the populism sweeping the world and it's use in this country.
    I would point out that the anti-Corbyn sentiment is endemic in our establishment, it is not specific to Corbyn, but he is a classic example of what they fear. It is the same bias that occurred when Michael Foot ran for government in the early 80's. The establishment, the wealthy and the privelidged are rabidly anti any form of socialism. By contrast the critisism of Johnson is little more than depicting him as a bumbling jester, a lovable rogue, who would naturally due to his privelidge and grooming by the establishment schools and colleges, secure our best interests.

    I suggest that such prejudice is difficult for people who have not grown up here to appreciate the subtlety of this distinction.
  • ssu
    1.7k
    It's true that there is an anti-Semitic problem amongst members of the Labour Party, but what are they suggesting is going to happen if Corbyn forms a government in a hung parliament?Punshhh
    I would say Corbyn or the Labour party has nothing against Jews or the Jewish religion. Likely what has happened in their hatred of the international financial elite they just have been ignorant about how close their narrative comes to Hitler and anti-semitism. Because when talking about "the World being ruled by a cabal of international bankers", you have just taken out one word and that is Jewish and then you are talking exactly the same line as Adolf Hitler did.

    Hence when Corbyn defends some mural like this (before he admits that it was wrong defend it), there is the case of him being an anti-semite.

    "The Enemy of Humanity"
    Screen-Shot-2012-10-06-at-12.02.25-PM-640x400.png

    And then there is the leftist Middle East policy. So Corbyn talks about Hamas and Hezbollah as 'friends' and naturally is very critical of the actions that Israel takes. And often anti-Israeli views are interpreted to be anti-semitic views.

    As a foreigner I'd say this a red herring or typical mudslinging of modern politics.
  • Punshhh
    932
    "the Enemy of Humanity"

    Yes agreed, this conflation is widespread in this country. My point is what is it the anxious Jews making this intervention think is going to happen? That they will be persecuted by the government, or the home office. Because their intervention is a direct move to sway the election and therefore who forms the next government.
    I agree that it is probably mud slinging, but in our society it is a taboo to criticise claims of racist bias like this. So it's mud which sticks.
  • Brett
    1.1k


    That graph and this one about the referendum demonstrate how there is a deep generational divide, in which the older generation wants to give the younger generation what they don't want and then go and die of old age and leave them with the mess to clear up.Punshhh

    I’ve read these sort of comments before. Why do you think that’s what’s happening? Why do you think it’s true?
  • ssu
    1.7k
    My point is what is it the anxious Jews making this intervention think is going to happen?Punshhh
    There is one point to be made here. That is that politicians in power do regulate and move the limits of the Overton window. Hence if it's totally acceptable of referring to an "international cabal of bankers running the World", then there's only a small step to add the J-word in front of the bankers. And these are the subtle things that then do add to anti-semitism.

    Yet persecution of Jews in the modern state is of course a whimsical outrageous idea. And the whole narrative of "Jews leaving the UK" is just similar talk like we heard in 2016 election of "Americans leaving to Canada if Trump is elected". Basically it's nonsensical rhetoric that just adds to the polarization and division of the political landscape.

    Besides, isn't it 'Silly-Season' there as you are going to have a general election in few weeks?
  • Punshhh
    932
    Yes there is an unprecedented level of silliness. Due to our political system the result is going to be decided by a small group of voters in a few seats. A large portion of these voters are susceptible to dog whistle politics.

    Regarding the overton window, in this country anti-discrimination and anti-racism is scrupulously held, there is a Protestant ethic on this and the broadcast media would not be able to veer away from this.
  • Punshhh
    932
    I’ve read these sort of comments before. Why do you think that’s what’s happening? Why do you think it’s true?
    It is widely understood here that there is this generational divide. Personally, nearly every old person I know is a leaving Conservative supporter. While all the young people I know are the opposite.

    There are two reasons for what the younger people think. One, they are disillusioned with a Thatcherite model due to the results of the credit crunch. Secondly, they have not experienced any issues which would foster an anti EU sentiment. For the older folk, firstly, they are steeped in the affluence they accrued during the Thatcherite period, particularly through the housing market. Secondly, they have been infected with anti EU sentiment over a long period.
  • Punshhh
    932
    Here is Corbyn 40 years ago, on the right is a photo of the members of the Bullingdon club, at the same time. In the photo are Johnson, Cameron, Osbourne( he's not in the photo, but is a member)
    IMG-8885.jpg
  • Tim3003
    163
    This site is quite informative:

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election

    If you click on 2019 UK Parliament swingometer you can play around with the %s of the parties and see how the result is affected. Ok, it's based on uniform swings, but fun to play with.

    I see that just as the Chief Rabbi is urging Jews not to vote Labour, Heseltine is urging Tories to vote Lib Dem or for independent ex-Tories, and Blair is calling them both 'dangerous', although he'll still vote Labour. I'm surprised at that. I'd have thought the Socialist program would alienate him..
  • Punshhh
    932
    Blair is a staunch remainer, he has no choice but to support Labour. Presumably he would tactically vote depending on the circumstances in his constituency.
  • Punshhh
    932
    Breaking news about 450 pages of unredacted documents, of the notes, or minutes of meetings about a possible trade deal with the US, with the government, from the middle of 2017-18, released by the Labour Party, obtained through freedom of information laws.

    Detailing amongst other things "full access" to markets, including the NHS. Noting the insistence that drug pricing will be at the front of the pile. NICE being the first target.

    Looks like a smoking gun.

    Check out Sky News.
  • Tim3003
    163
    PunshhhPunshhh

    This looks a lot like scaremongering by Corbyn. The minutes were from preliminary meetings, during which the US delegates outlined the areas they'd be interested in discussing re a trade deal. Access to the NHS and drug patents were among them. However, that doesnt mean the govt side agreed with their priorities, or that they'd be willing to compromise on them when the real talks start. Johnson is categorically ruling out any deal on the NHS. If he goes back on this promise he'll be in trouble.. It would be hilarious if he got an EU trade deal but couldn't agree one with the US!
  • Punshhh
    932

    The dossier was handed to him by a whistleblower yesterday and all he's saying is that it is evidence of what will be on the table in the post Brexit trade deal. With the follow up that Johnson is being dishonest about it.

    The important thing is that the voters who don't spend much time looking into such things are aware of Johnson's duplicity and the reality of how tough the trade talks with the US might be.

    For people like us who do give it a bit more thought, we should be under no illusions about what a hard ball game the US negotiators will play and how they will push for wide open access to our markets while we are in a position of weakness. That Johnson is unreliable and weak in the face of hard nosed business interests. That he will sell out our business interests, even if we get a reasonable trade deal with the US.

    Not to mention the elephant in the room, that the US won't negotiate until all the future arrangements with the EU have been sorted out. Which will require the brexiter government to make up its mind again, which it repeatedly fails to do. That the US will demand a hard Brexit during the decade of negotiations with the EU to try and thrash this out( this is the optimistic view, what's more likely is that the Johnson government will descend into chaos and the economy and welfare state will pay the price).
  • Evil
    194
    So... who is everyone voting for?
  • Punshhh
    932
    Labour, but it is irrelevant because I'm in a safe Conservative seat.
  • Tim3003
    163
    So... who is everyone voting for?Evil

    I think, probably no-one. As an ex-Blairite (pre Iraq) I might go for Lib Dems, but I just don't think unilaterally revoking Brexit is a viable policy.. I'm also in a safe Tory seat.

    It has to be said that there must be something wrong with a democracy where in the vast majority of seats it doesnt matter who you vote for..
  • Punshhh
    932
    Yes, most of my friends and family are in safe Tory seats, but will vote for other party's, so their votes are meaningless/wasted when it comes to the result of the election.
  • Evil
    194
    I'm voting red by proxy in a marginal seat
  • Evil
    194
    Who is everyone else voting for?
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