• m-theory
    1.1k
    If you do believe this, how would you proceed to demonstrate that it is true?Metaphysician Undercover

    We can prove that no particular observer is necessary for the laws of physics.
    That is to say different observers measure the same outcomes which proves that those measurements are not dependent upon any given one.

    That there are possibilities does not necessarily entail that there is randomness.Metaphysician Undercover

    Having possibilities entails that we must model them with randomness as the current state of knowledge stands now.

    What you have is an interpretation that you strongly believe, which is fine.
    What would be an error is to believe that your interpretation alone resolves the issue conclusively.
    It does not.
  • Metaphysician Undercover
    12.3k
    We can prove that no particular observer is necessary for the laws of physics.
    That is to say different observers measure the same outcomes which proves that those measurements are not dependent upon any given one.
    m-theory

    Your talking about "laws" now, here, and we were talking about randomness. Randomness is a failure to follow any laws. So you appear to be trying to conflate two distinct, and even contradictory things, activity which follows laws, and random outcomes which do not. The coin flip, toss of the dice, lottery, etc., each possible outcome has an equal probability, so there is no law to determine outcomes.

    Having possibilities entails that we must model them with randomness as the current state of knowledge stands now.m-theory

    Having possibility does not necessitate randomness. That's where the mistake is. Randomness can be produced from possibility, like we do with the coin toss, and the lottery, but these are artificial, intentional products. Possibility in its natural state is understood by means of probabilities. The fact that possibilities can be understood through probabilities indicates that there are underlying laws, and therefore random outcomes are not a natural process.
  • Harry Hindu
    4.9k
    I've always understood the use of "chance" when talking about evolution as meaning the same thing as "random", as in mutations occur randomly. But "chance" and "random" are simply a reflection of a gap in our knowledge of how the mutations actually occurred. Mutations occur when something happens during the process of copying DNA. Maybe some external force caused the copy "error" - radiation, disease, who knows.

    Nature doesn't do things randomly or by chance. There is always a reason why something happens. There is always a cause and when we are able to determine the cause we go from defining the process as "random" to "predictable".
  • tom
    1.5k
    I've always understood the use of "chance" when talking about evolution as meaning the same thing as "random", as in mutations occur randomly. But "chance" and "random" are simply a reflection of a gap in our knowledge of how the mutations actually occurred.Harry Hindu

    I've pointed out on more than one occasion that Neo-Darwinism does not require ill-defined or imaginary processes to support its thesis. It requires neither chance nor randomness, whatever you might think you mean by those concepts.

    What is required is this: The Central Dogma of Molecular Biology

    The mechanism of variation is irrelevant, so long as the DOGMA is respected.
  • Janus
    15.4k


    No, he won't be famous, because everyone does it, cannot escape doing it, every day, including you.
    The fact that a "tends to" cannot be deductively derived from a "does" is irrelevant. We do inductively derive the notion that certain things tend to behave in invariant or regular ways, from the fact that they have been invariably observed to do so. Of course this is no guarantee that things could not begin to behave differently at any time; there is no logical entailment that things must continue to behave as we think they have always been observed to, But because things (other than animals and humans) have never, so far as we know, been observed to suddenly begin behaving radically differently, then we do abductively derive the idea that the behavior of things may be invariant across time and space; and this hypothesis; which is incidentally necessary for the coherent practice of science, is rationally warranted insofar as all we have to go on is what has been observed and recorded thus far.
  • Harry Hindu
    4.9k
    Your use of the term "Dogma" seems to neglect that Crick himself admits that he misused the term when labeling his theory.

    From Wiki:
    In his autobiography, What Mad Pursuit, Crick wrote about his choice of the word dogma and some of the problems it caused him:

    "I called this idea the central dogma, for two reasons, I suspect. I had already used the obvious word hypothesis in the sequence hypothesis, and in addition I wanted to suggest that this new assumption was more central and more powerful. ... As it turned out, the use of the word dogma caused almost more trouble than it was worth. Many years later Jacques Monod pointed out to me that I did not appear to understand the correct use of the word dogma, which is a belief that cannot be doubted. I did apprehend this in a vague sort of way but since I thought that all religious beliefs were without foundation, I used the word the way I myself thought about it, not as most of the world does, and simply applied it to a grand hypothesis that, however plausible, had little direct experimental support."

    Similarly, Horace Freeland Judson records in The Eighth Day of Creation:

    "My mind was, that a dogma was an idea for which there was no reasonable evidence. You see?!" And Crick gave a roar of delight. "I just didn't know what dogma meant. And I could just as well have called it the 'Central Hypothesis,' or — you know. Which is what I meant to say. Dogma was just a catch phrase."
  • m-theory
    1.1k

    You seem to be missing the point.
    Arguing that probability is just a misunderstanding about physics is an interpretation.

    There is no proof that the universe is deterministic.

    Probability is necessary for creating the most accurate models in science.
    Be it quantum mechanics or stochastic chemistry in evolution.

    If there were better models that were strictly deterministic we would say that those models are necessary instead.
  • Metaphysician Undercover
    12.3k
    You seem to be missing the point.
    Arguing that probability is just a misunderstanding about physics is an interpretation.
    m-theory

    I have no problem with "probability", I believe it is very useful. What I have a problem with is "chance", or "randomness". Do you see the difference? Chance, or randomness, is when probability is inapplicable for the purpose of prediction. So chance and probability are inherently incompatible. Probability provides the basis for prediction, chance does not.

    But because things (other than animals and humans) have never, so far as we know, been observed to suddenly begin behaving radically differently, then we do abductively derive the idea that the behavior of things may be invariant across time and space; and this hypothesis; which is incidentally necessary for the coherent practice of science, is rationally warranted insofar as all we have to go on is what has been observed and recorded thus far.John

    Well John, you give an exception to animals and humans, but these are exactly the kinds of things which we are talking about here. We are talking about this type of thing, a living thing, which can suddenly start behaving radically different. So when this occurs, do you think that this is just a random change in the plant or animal, or is there some reason for such a change?
  • m-theory
    1.1k
    I have no problem with "probability", I believe it is very useful. What I have a problem with is "chance", or "randomness". Do you see the difference? Chance, or randomness, is when probability is inapplicable for the purpose of prediction. So chance and probability are inherently incompatible. Probability provides the basis for prediction, chance does not.Metaphysician Undercover

    I don't see a difference.
    Probability is used because some things in nature are indeterminate.
    The terms probability, randomness, and chance are all used to indicate that exact predictions cannot be made and instead only different possibilities can be described.
  • Janus
    15.4k
    So when this occurs, do you think that this is just a random change in the plant or animal, or is there some reason for such a change?Metaphysician Undercover

    It could be either I guess. If I developed a brain tumour, or endocrinal imbalance or some LSD was slipped into my soup, my behavior could change more or less rapidly and radically, despite my own intentions; whether good or otherwise. Would you call that random?

    Can plants or animals have intentions in the sense that humans do? Are you wanting to dissolve all and any distinction between 'intention' and 'tendency'?
  • Metaphysician Undercover
    12.3k
    Are you wanting to dissolve all and any distinction between 'intention' and 'tendency'?John

    Tendency and intention are two distinct things. Tendency is a leaning toward a particular action, it might be a habit or something like that. Intention is the purpose of the action. Two distinct things, we can identify a tendency, without knowing its purpose. And, knowing the purpose of a particular action will not necessitate that action, like a tendency will.
  • Metaphysician Undercover
    12.3k
    The terms probability, randomness, and chance are all used to indicate that exact predictions cannotm-theory

    That's the ambiguity I referred to earlier. "Chance" when speaking about a future event, refers to a possibility. This could be interpreted as probability. "Chance", when speaking of a past event as a "chance event", implies equal possibility, like the flip of the coin. "Random" refers to equal chances in relation to both, past and future.

    Since "random" refers to equal chances, it is useless for prediction. But any probability other than random is useful. So random is a particular type of probability which denies all possibility of prediction. That is the difference, probability is used in predictions when exactitude cannot be obtained, randomness does not allow for prediction at all.
  • m-theory
    1.1k
    That's the ambiguity I referred to earlier. "Chance" when speaking about a future event, refers to a possibility. This could be interpreted as probability. "Chance", when speaking of a past event as a "chance event", implies equal possibility, like the flip of the coin. "Random" refers to equal chances in relation to both, past and future.Metaphysician Undercover

    Chance is just another way to quantify probability.
    You have a 1 in 2 chance of getting heads in a coin toss for example.

    Since "random" refers to equal chances, it is useless for prediction. But any probability other than random is useful. So random is a particular type of probability which denies all possibility of prediction. That is the difference, probability is used in predictions when exactitude cannot be obtained, randomness does not allow for prediction at all.Metaphysician Undercover

    That is one interpretation.
    That the laws of nature are not deterministic and exact predictions are never going to be possible.
    But we can still get a general idea of what will happen based upon what has happened before.

    Take the coin example.
    We can guess that if we flip it enough times we will eventually get heads.

    We can make exact predictions, they just won't always be right.
  • tom
    1.5k
    Chance is just another way to quantify probability.
    You have a 1 in 2 chance of getting heads in a coin toss for example.
    m-theory

    That is just going round in circles. You could just as easily have written:

    "Probability is just another way to quantify chance. You have 0.5 probability of getting heads in a coin toss.."

    But of course, probability and chance has nothing to do with physics of the coin toss - it is a fully deterministic process.

    That the laws of nature are not deterministic and exact predictions are never going to be possible.m-theory

    Really? There has only ever been one stochastic physical theory - quantum mechanics in it's mid-20th century state-vector-collapse form.
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