• XanderTheGrey
    111
    I always genuinely belived this. However this morning I start to qestion it.

    After an event from from when I was 7 years old, I was routinely sent to, and interviewed by different psychiatrists, and psychologists. I did allot of checklists and tests. When it came to odds or chances I always gave the same answer; 50/50 or 50%. The same wen't for written tests in school, its one of the things that created enough friction to end my schooling early.

    I'm suspecting now that it might be incorrect. What are the thoughts on this among all of you?
  • tim wood
    3k
    When it comes to infinities, all odds are certainty, an infinite number of times.
  • noAxioms
    750
    My thoughts are that I'd like to play poker with you.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    Infinity is a number too large to be measured that means any relative odds are unknown, but they would in theroy approch certainty. Which is problematic as that applies to opposites.
  • XanderTheGrey
    111
    Assuming I don't know how to cull, retain full stock, riffle stack, table farro, and beat the cut.

    Or that a one in 1million, 1billion, or 1trillion year winning streak dosen't happen to me.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    In that time frame the impact of a winning streak is not significant.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    Playing poker for one million years means the probability of a given hand approches its true value for all players involved, this removes the influence of "luck of the draw". Assuming everyone has enough money to play that long.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    All possible odds, if something is not possible or becomes not possible then it is no longer a question of odds. May seem like an obvious point but people tend to think "chance" means anything is possible.
  • noAxioms
    750
    Or that a one in 1million, 1billion, or 1trillion year winning streak dosen't happen to me.XanderTheGrey
    That winning streak happens or it doesn't. 50/50, right? Or am I misunderstanding your stance that you stood by since you were 7?
  • tim wood
    3k
    Well, if there is a chance - or if "chance" not equal to zero - then under the given circumstances it will happen - an infinite number of times. If it is not going to happen because there is no chance, then there always has to be no chance. Infinities lead to counter-intuitive results.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k


    So over an infinite amount of time, do you think there is a chance I might adopt a poor diet and as a result become overweight?
  • XanderTheGrey
    111
    That winning streak happens or it doesn't. 50/50, right? Or am I misunderstanding your stance that you stood by since you were 7?noAxioms

    I do not know when exactly I took this stance, but yes. I think of it this way; in the bigger picture, considering an infinite time span, infinite space, matter & energy; a being somewhere could win a in gambling every single time it plays(lets say several times a day) for 90 years of its 100 year life. Thats event is a possibility.
  • XanderTheGrey
    111
    Another problem with determining probabilities is that it dependends on what we involve in our calculations. We don't involve things like time travel, quantum entanglement, teleportation, nor do we involve what has happened over the past billion years.
  • BlueBanana
    917
    Which is problematic as that applies to opposites.Jeremiah

    When an event happens infinite times,
    • p(A happens) approaches one,
    • p(¬A happens) approaches one,
    • p(¬(A happens)) approaches zero (A never happens), and
    • p(¬(¬A happens)) approaches zero (A always happens).
    There's no problem.
  • BlueBanana
    917
    I think of it this way; in the bigger picture, considering an infinite time span, infinite space, matter & energy; a being somewhere could win a in gambling every single time it plays(lets say several times a day) for 90 years of its 100 year life. Thats event is a possibility.XanderTheGrey

    It most certainly is, but where do you get the 50/50 from? The odds of that happening are 100%, not 50%.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    I'll refer you to the question I asked Tim.
  • BlueBanana
    917
    The answer is: absolutely - assuming you live infinitely.
  • noAxioms
    750
    I do not know when exactly I took this stance, but yes. I think of it this way; in the bigger picture, considering an infinite time span, infinite space, matter & energy; a being somewhere could win a in gambling every single time it plays(lets say several times a day) for 90 years of its 100 year life. Thats event is a possibility.XanderTheGrey
    OK, no argument with it being a possibility. It is the expressing of the odds of this possible situation as 50/50 that I didn't understand. If you are beginning to question doing so, then I approve.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    I could die this very day, and at the very least I am going to die of old age.

    You can't use use empty variables to explain everything, they have to be framed in context.
  • BlueBanana
    917
    If you die the time frame is not infinite. That's why I added "assuming you live infinitely".
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    I saw what you said but I said over an infinite amount of time, which does not require my presence. It is not my fault if you can't read. Regardless the point still stands.
  • BlueBanana
    917
    Of course the rule only applies to possible events, as Tim noted in his comment:

    Well, if there is a chance - or if "chance" not equal to zerotim wood
  • XanderTheGrey
    111
    It most certainly is, but where do you get the 50/50 from? The odds of that happening are 100%, not 50%.BlueBanana

    Well, I mean the odds of it happening at any given time, in any given place. Would be 50/50 right? In infinite space there is unlimited potential for something to reach out and intervene.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    I think the problem is that too many of you think of probability in an linear fashion but it doesn't work like that. Probability is a vast tangled contingent spider web that is constantly shifting.
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k
    Then we agree, all that stupid nonsense about it being certain is stupid nonsense, since the conditions are always changing.
  • XanderTheGrey
    111
    ↪Jeremiah If you die the time frame is not infinite. That's why I added "assuming you live infinitely".BlueBanana

    It dosen't matter how long your life is, its matters how long things have been going, how long the omniverses life span is(infinite in this case).
  • Jeremiah
    1.5k


    Why on Earth would it be 50/50?
  • BlueBanana
    917
    Well, I mean the odds of it happening at any given time, in any given place. Would be 50/50 right? In infinite space there is unlimited potential for something to reach out and intervene.XanderTheGrey

    No, if you throw a die the odds of getting 1 are at any given time and in any given place 1/6.

    It dosen't matter how long your life is, its matters how long things have been going, how long the omniverses life span is(infinite in this case).XanderTheGrey

    How long the life is does matter in this case. How long the lifespan of omniverse is is irrelevant to any case. One of the most basic rules of probability is that the history of events does not change the odds of any outcome.
  • XanderTheGrey
    111



    OK, no argument with it being a possibility. It is the expressing of the odds of this possible situation as 50/50 that I didn't understand. If you are beginning to question doing so, then I approve.noAxioms

    Well if the odds are not 50/50, then what are they? You might say we would have to calculate the odds by examining all things that could effect the outcome of the situation; even things that manipulate time and space, and in this case the things that could effect the situation to go in any direction or arive at any outcome are infinite.
  • XanderTheGrey
    111
    No, if you throw a die the odds of getting 1 are at any given time and in any given place 1/6.BlueBanana

    This assumes that space and time are not manipulated.

    How long the life is does matter in this case. How long the lifespan of omniverse is is irrelevant to any case. One of the most basic rules of probability is that the history of events does not change the odds of any outcome.BlurBanana

    The history of events is used to calculate the odds in some cases is it not?
  • BlueBanana
    917
    This assumes that space and time are not manipulated.XanderTheGrey

    Are they? Where does this assumption come from?

    What are the odds of throwing a tails with a coin twice in the row?
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