Here’s an easy prediction: this will turn out to be a disaster.

Quote me on it later.

The political opposition to Trump hasn't woken up to the fact that this isn't a normal President — ssu

I don’t really speak of the opposition, but everyone who sees him for what he is. This isn’t really about political sides, it’s an about normal people against a cult leader.

It looks like "adults in the room" are betting on VP Rodriguez being more pliant and reasonable than her (former) boss. So, to them, "running the country" is basically keeping Rodriguez as a technical president and trying to work with (strong-arm) her. From what I have picked up about Rodriguez, she seems like a competent technocrat. But how secure her position in the hierarchy is an open question.

The situation is interesting to compare to the U.S. backed coup in Chile that brought in Pinochet. The corporate backers of that action were stinging from the loss of recently nationalized infrastructure.

Venezuela is decades past that moment.

Rubio was visibly infuriated when a reporter kept pressing him on what it means that all the other enablers around Maduro are still in place. Trump might have been wanting to cut the head off the snake, but what if the snake is a Medusa?

At her swearing in Rodrigues was flanked by Diosdado Cabello (who controls the intelligence services and the party apparatus) and Vladimir Padrino López (who commands the military). And what about the generals? Presumably they've been kept compliant with their share of the looted national wealth. Be interesting to see how they react if that is seriously threatened.

Rubio was visibly infuriated when a reporter kept pressing him on what it means that all the other enablers around Maduro are still in place. Trump might have been wanting to cut the head off the snake, but what if the snake is a Medusa? — Wayfarer

Maybe because most people think that the problems with an authoritarian regime is only the leader. That's only true in authoritarian nations in which the dictator rules his closest people with fear. But most authoritarian regimes are composed of a wide net of people who keeps all parts of the nation within the same grasp of power. Even Trump's cult following functions like this, with lots of little nazis and corrupt grifters handling stuff around him. Even though Trump and his people are so stupid and incompetent that I think that house of card would fall with the weight of tungsten if he gets removed or dies.

Normally, if something like this happens, the best way would be to let the UN go in and arrange an election in which the people in power have no power other than to just run the nation until the election is done. The idiots in Washington have now essentially just created a power vacuum at the top and if they don't get an election running fast it will be chaos.

But it's obvious that Trump is just after the oil and minerals for the AI business. Venezuela is among the wealthiest in the world in that regard. He just want someone he can bully into giving him all those goods. He doesn't give a shit about democracy or the people of Venezuela.

The best flipping finger that Venezuela can give to Trump and his cultists would be to change into a proper democracy that starts to do business with their resources at a high price in order to enrich the people and make the nation prosper as a whole. It has just been so good for Trump that Maduro were so authoritarian, it enabled an attack that could just pass as legitimate, even if it isn't. But a proper democracy that opposes the US imperialism? That would be a nightmare for Trump.

Venezuela is among the wealthiest in the world in that regard. — Christoffer

Everything I'm reading is that while Venezuela has huge oil reserves, it is uniformly said to be 'heavy, sulfurous and hard to refine'. And the world is not actually short of oil at the moment.

I think the credible motivation is that there was some real Maduro hawks in the Administration - notably Marco Rubio himself - and Trump was infuriated by Maduro's dancing around on television like nobody could touch him. 'That'll learn him'. I can hear him saying it.

As for the Venezuelan government, it's been practically eviscerated by decades of corruption and mismanagement. I wouldn't be surprised if, in fact, nothing much happens. I don't think anyone on either side has much of a clue, let alone a plan.

It looks like "adults in the room" are betting on VP Rodriguez being more pliant and reasonable than her (former) boss. So, to them, "running the country" is basically keeping Rodriguez as a technical president and trying to work with (strong-arm) her. From what I have picked up about Rodriguez, she seems like a competent technocrat. But how secure her position in the hierarchy is an open question. — SophistiCat

These "adults in the room" aren't adults in the room, as in Trump's first administration. Only vaguely Marco Rubio tries to give an impression of normalcy by trying to say that the operation was to bring into justice Maduro, that the US isn't at war with Venezuela, yet his POTUS quickly made it clear it was about the Venezuelan oil reserves and that the US taking over the country.

Think about just how ridiculous this whole idea of "running the country is". So you have the Chavista regime in Venezuela still in power, you have thrown under the bus the Venezuelan opposition, and you have stated that you basically are talking to the Maduro/Chavista-regime. The Rodriguez team can now stall things and basically agree on something, yet still say "No" to other things. And it's still a large country. Venezuela is getting support from Colombia and Brazil. Trump can bomb the country and seize oil tankers, but what then? Now the Chavista-regime can convincingly tell it's population that any worsening of the economy will happen because of Trump that wishes to colonize the country.

I think the credible motivation is that there was some real Maduro hawks in the Administration - notably Marco Rubio himself - and Trump was infuriated by Maduro's dancing around on television like nobody could touch him. 'That'll learn him'. I can hear him saying it. — Wayfarer

Yeah, seems plausible.., I’m constantly reminded that I give Trump and his idiots too much intellectual credit for decisions, when in reality most of them are just a bunch of absolute morons representing the most brainless slobs of meat walking this earth.

I’m constantly reminded that I give Trump and his idiots too much intellectual credit for decisions, when in reality most of them are just a bunch of absolute morons representing the most brainless slobs of meat walking this earth. — Christoffer

:up: :100:

All that said, Maduro was responsible for a huge amount of suffering and economic degradation. Venezuelans have been reduced to living in poverty while he and his cronies squirrelled away the wealth of the nation in their private accounts. His wife owns entire neighborhoods in Caracas according to reports.

The other thing is, the extraction and incarceration of Maduro hardly provides a template for Trump’s other stated aims of ‘taking Greenland’ or ‘overthrowing the Colombian government’. Those are very different in size and scope. The extraction was very specific with a clear outcome and a limited theatre of operations. Occupations and regime changes are far more expansive and open-ended. One hopes that Trump’s musings on those ideas are just braggadocio.

Since the 19th century, the United States has made several attempts to purchase the island of Greenland from Denmark. There were notable internal discussions within the U.S. federal government about acquiring Greenland in 1867, 1910, 1946, 1955, 2019, and 2025, and acquisition has been advocated by American secretaries of state William H. Seward and James F. Byrnes, privately by Vice President Nelson Rockefeller, and publicly by President Donald Trump, among others. After World War II, the United States secretly offered to buy Greenland; there was public discussion about purchasing the island during Trump's first term in 2019 and again after Trump's 2024 reelection, as part of his American expansionism policy. Since taking office in 2025, Trump has threatened to invade or annex Greenland and engaged in hybrid warfare against Greenland. — wikipedia

I was aware of that, but again, if Trump actually seized Greenland by military force, it would be a far bigger deal than extracting Maduro from Venezuela. (Which, according to reports, is now undergoing a massive crackdown by the military and intelligence communities. )

I was aware of that, but again, if Trump actually seized Greenland by military force, it would be a far bigger deal than extracting Maduro from Venezuela. (Which, according to reports, is now undergoing a massive crackdown by the military and intelligence communities. ) — Wayfarer

In terms of the US relationship with Europe, yes, it would be a blow.

Taking over a failed state is a big open-ended mess, though. I heard the power is back on in Caracas.

All that said, Maduro was responsible for a huge amount of suffering and economic degradation. Venezuelans have been reduced to living in poverty while he and his cronies squirrelled away the wealth of the nation in their private accounts. His wife owns entire neighborhoods in Caracas according to reports. — Wayfarer

I think that Saddam Hussein was responsible for a lot more of suffering and death than the previous busdriver then President Maduro ever did. Saddam's policies were even worse for Iraq. Hence there were similar arguments for intervention in Iraq. You have always these kinds of arguments and the neocons have stated these, even if the real cause has always been the threat that the country poses.

Countries and their societies are very complex and difficult to change from the outside. Venezuela is the best example of a rentier state and country where the "Dutch Disease" went totally out of control. And later the Chavistas have absolutely wrecked the economy with disastrous socialist policies. That's were Venezuela is irrelevant of how much natural resources and beautiful beaches and wildlife it would have to make it very prosperous.

What would be the chances of a foreign entity to get things to improve even if they would be wholeheartedly welcomed to the country, yet with the same regime in power? Because they would have to improve in order for the oil industry to be modernized and put on to track... and the profits to start flowing. But here there's not even that. The Trump administration thinks that it can change at gunpoint with threats Venezuela where in a similar earlier case even by occupying the whole country of Iraq and having Americans in charge didn't work.

The short answer: it won't work.

if Trump actually seized Greenland by military force, it would be a far bigger deal than extracting Maduro from Venezuela. — Wayfarer

I really hope Danish and allied military gets to Greenland and defend against such a thing. Attacking Greenland in a way that leads to combat against allied troops within Nato would be such a diplomatic disaster for Trump. He would also essentially become a military target and invoking article 5 against the US would stir things up quite a bit.

If the opposition in the US doesn't do anything about Trump in such a case, I would conclude that the US is quite fucked and have a hard time recovering. But the real deal would be to target Trump with the international court. He wouldn't be able to go anywhere as a president, not anywhere that actually matters for a US president anyway.

I would love for all of these morons who infested the US and Europe to just fuck off to Russia like all the other authoritarians and morons of society. It's quickly becoming a cesspool for such low lives and I wouldn't mind putting up a big iron wall against that part of the world. Let them rot in there.