The Philosophy of 'Risk': How is it Used and, How is it Abused?

Jack Cummins

I came across the idea of risk in psychiatry initially, but am aware that it is a central aspect of so much policy making, including health and safety issues at work. It is an aspect of the pragmatics of philosophy as opposed to the academic pursuit of philosophy. This may lead it to be shunned as an area of philosophy, but I would argue that it is important for thinking of philosophy applied to human affairs, including ethics.

My own working definitely of risk involves the weighing of potential.harm to oneself and others. One book which I see as having some important ideas related to risk is, 'Seeing What Others Don't; The Remarkanle Ways We Gain Insights', by Gary Klein, (2013). He looks at the idea of 'the black swan' by Nasseem Talib, which is about the importance of the irregular aspects of predictability. He says, describes these as " the out- of - nowhere crises that can suddenly descend. Black swans obviously threaten predictability'.

Klein also looked at the limits of checklists as an assessment of risk, saying that, 'Checkists and procedures ensure predicatility'', but the downside of checklists is they induce Mindlessness. We just have to follow the steps and not think about them.

It is this area of philosophy of risk which may be critical, as being about critical thinking. Risks involve weighing of critical factors, their advantages and disadvantages. One of the disadvantages for misuse which I see is the potential for identifying risk factors and seeing them in a concrete way rather than as possibilities. In particular, when risks are identified, especially in risks of human action is if the risks are taken too concretely.

For example, individuals may be seen as posing a risk, including in terms of potential criminality. Here, it could get to the point where people are being seen as potential criminals without having committed a crime. This becomes more likely with amalgorithims and artificial intelligence.

It is in the context of actual and virtual possibilities that I am asking the question of the nature of risk. What is reliable and imaginary, and how do the two come together in proactive and preventative measures in sound philosophical thinking?
.

L'éléphant

One of the disadvantages for misuse which I see is the potential for identifying risk factors and seeing them in a concrete way rather than as possibilities. — Jack Cummins

Nuclear war comes to mind. Prevention is everything, because the actuality of it is the end of it all. So, we do not have the luxury of waiting for it to happen to assess how much risk we are taking. We need to have zero occurrence for it happening -- which means:

In particular, when risks are identified, especially in risks of human action is if the risks are taken too concretely. — Jack Cummins

We need to take the risks concretely.

It is in the context of actual and virtual possibilities that I am asking the question of the nature of risk. What is reliable and imaginary, and how do the two come together in proactive and preventative measures in sound philosophical thinking? — Jack Cummins

The central intelligence have the power to assess the possibilities. Of course you are asking in terms of philosophy. So, what then? Empirical tests and observations, which rests on what reality we're talking about. If we're talking about the ordinary world, then there's your answer. But if you're thinking about the reality of Schrodinger's cat, then you can have all the thought experiments you want.

Jack Cummins

↪L'éléphant

The assessment of nuclear war risk is critical and I would argue that there is the danger of inaccuracies. I understand that there was an incident, during the Cold War, when there was a message of nuclear attack that almost led to a full-scale nuclear war. The incident was not disclosed at the time but, here, is a clear issue of inadequacies of risk assessment.

It is not that I am trying to suggest that risk assessment should not occur, but that often occurs in a shallow way. To a large extent, all life judgments involve risk assessment
insofar as they involve calculation of outcomes. It is just that the rhetoric often misses the full intricacies, with the many unknown variables.

There is an inflated sense of belief in the power to measure risk, especially with technology, including artificial intelligence. From what I have seen, reliance on such technology often results in gross errors. It is likely that genuine risks are underplayed rather than overplayed.

Paine

If I do x, will I be broke, deported, divorced, broken or some combination of the above? Living in a world of accidents, calculation of chances taken is limited by ignorance and the illusion of knowledge.

The carpenter does not know the twisted grain will cause the wood being cut on the table saw to become a projectile thrown with the power of three horses until he tries it. Intervention by means of a mean old person or industrial psychologist can improve the learning curve but every student needs to see their maker in some fashion to start paying attention to signs and portents. Aristotle pointed out that there is no theory of the accidental. There will be a test.

The illusion of knowledge has its own set of problems. Oedipus tried to avoid an outcome in such a way that it caused it to happen. Is there a way to avoid the unwanted feedback loops that emerge through some efforts to avoid bad things?

Suddenly, the roster of mean old people and psychologists thins out precipitously.

jgill

Intervention by means of a mean old person . . . — Paine

the roster of mean old people — Paine

What's with this categorization? Is there a name for a philosophical study of "mean old people"?

The philosophy of risk should be the psychology of risk. As a former rock climber for over fifty years I have observed the interplay between physical risk and reputational risk.

wonderer1

What's with this categorization? Is there a name for a philosophical study of "mean old people"? — jgill

I propose "curmudgeonlogy".

Paine

↪jgill

I meant to include all the people who demand a continuous understanding of what can go wrong and why on the job.

Saying grumpy old people is too broad a stroke. Impatience with the dangers of ignorance, has to become applied by the rookie to themselves if they are to become artisans through their methods of work. Or perhaps only I hear the voices in my head after years of being yelled at....

The philosophy of risk should be the psychology of risk. As a former rock climber for over fifty years I have observed the interplay between physical risk and reputational risk. — jgill

How to understand performance is a proper inquiry of psychology. The interplay of different kinds of risk you report sounds scary. My inner OSHA supervisor is trying to steer me in the other direction.

jgill

The interplay of different kinds of risk you report sounds scary. My inner OSHA supervisor is trying to steer me in the other direction. — Paine

Alex Honnold starred in the Oscar-winning film "Free Solo" and became the world's most famous rock climber. He epitomizes a certain justification of controlled risk in the climbing community, although he lost several sponsorships in the process. His spectacular accomplishment was supported by considerable practice and an innate ability to confine emotion to allow near physical perfection - a degree of calmness not seen often in that community or society in general.

I propose "curmudgeonlogy". — wonderer1

Finally, A breakthrough on TPF, an original philosophical path that must have the amateurs and professionals here salivating! I can imagine dust blown off ancient texts searching for what Aristotle had to say on the subject - if anything at all. :cool:

Tom Storm

It is in the context of actual and virtual possibilities that I am asking the question of the nature of risk. What is reliable and imaginary, and how do the two come together in proactive and preventative measures in sound philosophical thinking? — Jack Cummins

Risk has entered business thinking and clinical services mainly to avoid death, injury, litigation and loss of money. Having a risk mitigation strategy is often a way to reduce insurance premiums. Risk has become a minor obsession within the cult-like world of management theory.

Outside of this, I have no strong view of risk. We often connect risk to opportunity which recalls that shop-soiled homily, 'nothing ventured, nothing gained.' I have often told myself I need to take more risks. Part of this is in recognition that learning often involves embracing the strange and unfamiliar, in order to enlarge one's world. Often when you come to some philosophy you find yourself reacting against, it is important to try to 'make a friend' of it because it may just be the limits of your worldview rather than limitations in the philosophy that are activated. Often the things we fear (which present as risks) are the things we might benefit from learning.

L'éléphant

There is an inflated sense of belief in the power to measure risk, especially with technology, including artificial intelligence. From what I have seen, reliance on such technology often results in gross errors. It is likely that genuine risks are underplayed rather than overplayed. — Jack Cummins

Where then should we rely on?

Sorry, but 100% of all nuclear plant disasters were caused by human error and inadequate training. Ignoring warnings and complacence.

Honestly, we're doomed. We are the catalyst of our own extinction. At any given moment, we are building the AI to become our future's demise. Here's a thought experiment: imagine a world full of AI. No procreation needed as they could build their own family members and friends. They would be the aliens that we never had -- you know, the UFOs. We would be the creators of a population of aliens and UFOs. Problem solved.

jgill

Is risk vs reward a proper philosophical subject? I don't see much here to indicate it is. The world is full of stories of those who have succeeded in risky ventures. We learn from these tales, and they may help us as we toil away at life. But, is there a philosophy of risk taking?

What did Aristotle have to say?

L'éléphant

What did Aristotle have to say? — jgill

Have you noticed that there's no philosophy of risk because the point of philosophy is the contemplation of the world. It's a passive activity.

A nuclear plant disaster would vindicate both the stoics and the cynics. The former would accept it rationally and move on. The cynics would have plenty to write about.

Tom Storm

Have you noticed that there's no philosophy of risk because the point of philosophy is the contemplation of the world. It's a passive activity. — L'éléphant

Interesting point. I wonder haven’t you also encountered young men who fancy themselves Nietzsche’s heirs, who talk bravely and with great bluster about taking risks via self-overcoming, but are basically just posturing fanboys sitting at a laptop?

L'éléphant

↪Tom Storm

:sweat:

BC

'Checkists and procedures ensure predicatility'', but the downside of checklists is they induce Mindlessness. We just have to follow the steps and not think about them. — Jack Cummins

Airplane pilots have used checklists for some time. "Just follow the steps and not think about them" increases the risk of ending up dead. Similarly, errors in operating rooms have been greatly reduced in institutions where the operating room staff are required to follow a short check list, like: get the patients verbal confirmation of what is going to happen; which body part is receiving surgery? Mark that body part with an "X" and a word or two; amputate left arm or right foot? Mark it clearly, And so on.

Aversion to risk varies. "Would you attend a ball game where 1 random person out of the 60,000 fans present would be killed?" A lot of people wouldn't. On the other hand, people who are risk averse in some settings are quite risk tolerant in others. The chances of getting killed while driving intoxicated is quite a bit higher than 1 out of 60,000. Some people are willing to take a level of risk during sexual activity they wouldn't think of taking with their money.

If you are / were sexually promiscuous, there is a good chance that you will have some kind of consequence. Throat cancer from exposure to wart virus HPV #16 or #18 during oral sex may take 30 or 40 years to show up. How do you measure risk when the delay is so long?

How does a 25 year old measure the risk of financial collapse when he is about to retire in 50 years? Damed if I know.

I am in favor of people taking risks, provided the risks are considered carefully. Avoiding risk as a practice is a dead end for our species.

Jack Cummins

↪Tom Storm

Sorry for the late response, but I do wonder about the way in.which risk is seen in relation to death. While working in psychiatry, this did seem to be the concern. However, since that time, I have seen risk used in differing ways. In particular, risk assessment is being used in England for assessing fraud amongst benefit recipients..This is despite some evidence of suicides based on those who have gruelling risk assessments. So, I would argue that the underlying basis of risk assessment is bound up with political values and biases..

Jack Cummins

↪BC

In your post you refer to checklists of risk, which may be so variable. In some ways, the checklists may be useful if they go far enough, but if they are mere tick boxes they may be used in organisations as a means of covering potential legal claims.

However, your post also covers the understanding of risk in general life, which may be an aspect of life and philosophy which is not considered. Every act in life and human choice is bound up with some logical or intuitive aspects of assessment of risks. The entire philosophy of utilitarianism looks at potential ends of action.

This does involve aspects of life from sexual promiscuity to aspects of economics. It is involved predictability and the nature of uncertainty, and the possible juxtaposition of both. This makes risk so complex, in practical and ethical choices in human life, judgment and wider aspects of decision making.

Jack Cummins

↪jgill

The idea of risk is bound up with ideas of benefits and hazards. It may be where the area of practical and theoretical collide. This is because theory translates into practice in life and human affairs. Risk management may be quantifiable but it may also be qualitative, as bearing upon the nature of human experience itself. The quantifiable and qualitative aspects of life are not entirely inseparable. This may be a conundrum of risk assessment, especially where it involves quantification as a key component of assessment of risk.

BC

↪Jack Cummins

Risk is complex, as our individual estimations of risk are.

In the Shoutbox, there is a current discussion of aged egg nog -- eggs, milk, sugar, and alcohol -- aged for up to a year. This drink would pose definite risks which I would decline to take. I've had food poisoning and it was VERY unpleasant--not worth the risk!

The checklist I mentioned was used to counter lapses in memory or attention that can occur when a large number of factors are in play -- like in an operating room. NASA has a very long and detailed checklist to go through before it publicly blasts off a hugely expensive rocket and satellite or astronaut. As we know, a lot of launches don't happen. NASA, as an organization, is highly risk averse even though the business they are in is high risk -- hence the long checklist involving a large control room full of engineers checking things twice, thrice, and more.

As for everyday risk -- of which there really is a great deal -- I think we elect to not think about it most of the time. A minute by minute focus on risk can be paralyzing for us. Prey animals seem to have adapted to the risks they face, which tend to be life or death by predator. They use various strategies. So do we. The individual in a herd faces a lot less risk than the same individual grazing alone would face. Rabbits don't graze in herds, and (at least the ones I see in the neighborhood) don't seem to be very worried. One of their strategies is stillness. They freeze. Predators are often tuned to movement. Rabbits reproduce prolifically, so that is another strategy for the species.

Even plants adapt to risk. Blue bell flowers are pretty but they are a prolific nuisance. They have very large tuber-like roots which allow them to spring up again and again. If one keeps mowing off these tall weeds, they adapt by blossoming on very short stems. Damn.

Eventually, for most animals including us, the risks come home to roost and that spells The End. We know this, but we think, "not yet", and for long stretches of time we are right.

Jack Cummins

↪BC

The idea of risks, including food and drink may be important. In particular, alcohol is seem as a specific threat to health. In contrast, sugar, while seen as a potential problem, may not be seen in the exact same way. Both alcohol and sugar pose risks to health, but this evaluation may be clouded by value judgments of how one should live.

I also wonder about how lifeforms, including human beings accommodate and evolve in accordance with risks. It could be that risks, and the experience of painful suffering are triggers for cultural and personal evolution. That is because adversity involves a motivation leads to innovation, as the key factor of creativity in adaptation, including human thinking.

Tom Storm

So, I would argue that the underlying basis of risk assessment is bound up with political values and biases.. — Jack Cummins

Will yes, but isn't almost everything in public life down to political values and biases? I would think in essence risk assessment stems from the value that all human life matters and with it the expectation of accountability from funded services that are entrusted to take care of others. At its crudest, if people are dying or being harmed then we can see the 'bias' and 'value' of preserving life and doing no harm have been transgressed.

In particular, risk assessment is being used in England for assessing fraud amongst benefit recipients. — Jack Cummins

There is a value here that public resources should not be squandered. The right is generally more prone to 'balanced budget' discourse than the left. But in the neoliberal realm most governments are susceptible to cost cutting based on the value that spending public money (tax revenue) on 'wasteful' enterprises is wrong. Voters tend to agree. Is there a risk management framework they are using in this process or is this more about a stringent eligibility criteria?

Jack Cummins

↪Tom Storm

I am aware that you are in Australia and the politics of which I am speaking is in England. I do not know how ideas of politics and risk management are global.

Part of the way in which I see the idea of risk management is that in some circles, it came to be used as almost an ethical imperative. Suicide risk carried so much weight. In the politics of risk assessment this seems to be turned upside down. The assessment processes for benefits has been found to be a contributory factor in some case scenarios of suicide.

In this way, risk assessment hinges upon values of what is important. The idea of risk can be used in such varying ways, but as a powerful rhetoric. The idea of risk is dependent upon what and who is seen as important to be valued. It could be the needs of the mentally ill, the poor, or the rich and powerful. In this way, the idea of 'risk' can be a sweeping moral rhetoric in philosophical justification, depending upon power allegiances and sympathies.

Tom Storm

I am aware that you are in Australia and the politics of which I am speaking is in England. — Jack Cummins

Yep. We borrow a lot of welfare fraud prevention strategies from the UK. We have an equivalent to the NHS and the Jobseeker allowance. We run equivalent scam detection and debt reclamation strategies.

The assessment processes for benefits has been found to be a contributory factor in some case scenarios of suicide. — Jack Cummins

Assessment processes are closer to eligibility criteria mechanisms than true risk assessment.

We had 'mutual obligation' policies here ( to claim overpayment of welfare welfare) under the Conservatives that caused numerous suicides. There has been a public enquiry into it here. People were being targeted who did not in fact receive any overpayments and were being hounded for money. Erroneously as it turned out.

Jack Cummins

↪Tom Storm

.The assessment of benefits entitlement are so complex, which so many variables. I guess that the way in which I see the problem in this and, so much of social policy, is that risk and its assessment is seen so much as a moral imperative. The word 'risk' conjures up so much weight, which may have been ranked according to moral duties and human rights previously. So, the issues of risk, as in clear objective possible outcomes, is important but it may need to be understood in terms of specific value systems in which it is developed.

Tom Storm

↪Jack Cummins

Ok. I don't see it as being all that challenging. Risk is assessed to reduce or prevent harm - one such harm is spending money where it need not be spent. This is always subject to a values. Saving life, preventing injury, damage, etc, are worthwhile ethical goals. Often it is the crudity of the tool, or the lack of training of the worker, or inadequate processes that may cause unintended injury. That said, I would still separate eligibility assessment criteria from a risk mitigation framework.

LuckyR

↪Jack Cummins

Part of the problem with the subject of risk (prospectively), is that risk assessment is notoriously inaccurate, thus ignoring "known" risk can be defended just as taking it into consideration can be criticized.

Hanover

On this way, risk assessment hinges upon values of what is important — Jack Cummins

Your post brought to mind the issue of climate change and policies responsive to it. The question of risk assessment is twofold: (1) that of assessing the facts and (2) that of assessing desired outcomes. The former is a scientific question, the latter that of policy because of the subjective nature of desire. A climatologist is charged with evaluating #1, a politician #2.

We see the absurd attempt by politicians who try to dictate scientific results based upon the outcome they want. That is, if you want to drill for more oil because it will help the economy, you can't just deny the negative climate effects because it is contrary to your needs.

But the other side is true as well. Science does not dictate policy. That drilling for oil might seriously damage the environment does not dictate that it shouldn't be done. What dictates whether it shouldn't be done is a weighing of desired outcome, which means if we'd rather have a certain economy and have higher sea levels, that is the legitimate democratic policy choice.

This isn't to say that there are not better and worse desires, but the politician is charged with advancing the will of the people if he wishes to maintain his position as a policy maker and not his views of what the single ethical outcome ought to be.

For example, should Covid masks have been mandated? That is a policy question, not a scientific one. The scientific question asks what happens if they are used versus if they aren't. The policy question asks what do we want.

BC

↪Tom Storm

↪Jack Cummins

Minnesota, generally a relatively low public fraud state in the US, is still prosecuting a $250,000,000 rip off of Federal Covid-19 funding. Under the name, Feeding Our Future, the defendants claimed to provide millions of meals to poor families with children.

One of the unresolved issues is how presumably honest public officials managed to fail noticing the volume of cash flowing into this previously little-known charity. Or that nobody went out to take a look at all the wonderful bounty flowing to so many unfortunate people. Never mind ordinary auditing requirements that the Federal and State governments usually enforce.

There is real risk in handing out largesse without effective controls. "Yes, Virginia, there really are crooked people out there who will take you for everything you are worth." Even small grants of < $20k can involve burdensome reporting, so one would expect extensive monitoring of a quarter of a billion dollar handout. Apparently, an entire department grossly underestimated the risk of darkness lurking in the hearts of crooked men and women. About half of the defendants in this fraud had a few million dollars in contracts with the State to provide child and adult day care. Those contracts are being investigated too -- at last.

Losing money is a risk; at greater risk is the reputation of the state as a reliable steward of public resources. Also at risk is the reputation of the Somali community. from which dozens of the fraudsters came. The thieves took the money "to purchase luxury cars, houses, jewelry, and coastal resort property abroad." When it comes to large amounts of money sloshing around in the public trough, crime is less a risk and more a certainty,

Jack Cummins

↪LuckyR

The inaccuracy of risk assessment is part of the problem and how measures are taken on the basis of information with inaccuracies. For example, when working in nursing, suicide risk was assessed but it was not accurate. The particular problem here is that it is all assessed on the basis of past action and what a person says. The person who is really planning it is unlikely to tell anyone. Part of this complexity, is that the person knows that measures such as being detained in hospital are likely.

People are harder to assess than factors in the physical world. Of course, it is important to assess, especially in mental health and forensic psychiatry and the issue may be to do it as fully and carefully as possible.

Even with factors in the physical environment risks are not always straightforward because of so many variables.

.

Jack Cummins

↪Hanover

The point about science not being the foundation of policy is an important one. If anything it is the opposite way round. To some extent, experimental evidence can be developed to support policy aims.

The Covid evidence base was tricky because it was a new element. I hate to admit to a little bit of conspiracy theory but I do think that on some level the time of lockdown was used as a basis for bringing in policy changes, in England anyway. So much has changed in a way which seems to be about making the gulf between the rich and the poor greater.

Even with climate change, there are political aspects. A large problem of risk assessment was that it underplayed the speed of climate change. Also, the depletion of oil resources is central and the politics of this comes into play and it is likely that research and policy is likely to be more aimed at the needs of the elite.

Hanover

The Covid evidence base was tricky because it was a new element. I hate to admit to a little bit of conspiracy theory but I do think that on some level the time of lockdown was used as a basis for bringing in policy changes, in England anyway. So much has changed in a way which seems to be about making the gulf between the rich and the poor greater. — Jack Cummins

Interesting perspective. The more wealthy thought the opposite in that they felt the Covid regulations were meant to shake up the status quo and bring about more communal policies.

I can't say what the motivations of the policy makers actually were, but typically the most vulnerable always get the short end of the stick regardless of intentions. Those adept at figuring out a system typically do so regardless of how it gets set up.

The Philosophy of 'Risk': How is it Used and, How is it Abused?

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