:up:

So I'll go to my original position, that it is incompetence combined with unhelpful demands from IMF and others. — Banno

I would add that the present global economic situation as a cause that is making the countries in the worst state (as Sri Lanka) now to drop in the towel. Oil prices are globally extremely high and so are many other raw materials.

Now take into account that both Ukraine and Russia have "problems" in the next harvest, Ukraine even more.

Last time we had these kind of oil prices, we had food riots later all over the world.

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-111-what-about-greece-charting?r=1ybx2&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

This is what awaits Sri Lanka under the patronage of the IMF, if the experience of Greece is anything to go by:



Basically by 2035 or so it should be back to where it was in... 2009. Only the state has been gutted and fiscally Greece is basically an vassal state of Brussels with zero democratic input. Yay for structural adjustment.

...the countries in the worst state (as Sri Lanka) now to drop in the towel. — ssu

As shown above, Sri Lanka was no "in the worst state" before the present crisis.

IMF projections.

Is there any evidence that their projections are accurate? There must be a PhD. somewhere that goes back to their historical projections and compares them to reality.

That would be an interesting read.

Agreed. But considering that the IMF has an interest in jacking up projections such as these so as to justify the devestation they inflict upon economies, either it's refreshingly honest to see such dire projections, or worse, optimistic on the part of the IMF.

Greece shows a dip to 70% of per capita real GDP and then back up again. A dip in per real GDP is something that we are all expecting.

There are two other charts I will present there are differing views on how to get out of this.

https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/unemployment-rate

https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/unemployment-rate

I think this piece sets out very well why Sri Lanka is in the current situation .

The pain became more severe because the country’s main foreign earnings dried up; tourism came to a halt, and migrant remittances declined. Garment, tea and rubber exports held up to a degree. But the country’s trade deficit only grew as imports cont...

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/sri-lankas-crisis-the-disaster-of-economic-dependency-1098125.html

The country needs to shift away from the structures of dependency – including financialisation, trade liberalisation and tourism – that led to this crisis. The need of the hour is a democratic social contract with people based on immediate relief, fo...

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/sri-lankas-crisis-the-disaster-of-economic-dependency-1098125.html

Assuming that is true, is this the IMF method, structural adjustment, or is it something else?

Good article, except that tourist arrivals are up

https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/the-world/south-asia/5235-crisis-ridden-sri-lanka-negotiates-for-an-imf-bailout

https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/tourist-arrivals

Thanks for the info. Watching with curiosity, to see what the IMF deal looks like. Glad Sri Lanka might be in with a chance.

What is interesting is the balance between politics and correctness: for example, an earlier IMF program may have been economically beneficial, but if it turned out to be not necessary, would have had a high political cost.

I have been looking at the concept of de-growth as put forward here. It is a tough sell, and I would think politically impossible.

What is degrowth?
Degrowth is an idea that critiques the global capitalist system which pursues growth at all costs, causing human exploitation and environmental destruction.

https://degrowth.info/degrowth

Another option is to fund wind and solar energy which will have a net savings and make those loans very payable from savings on oil purchases.

https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/sri-lanka