We were talking about Democrats, remember? — RogueAI

You were talking about democrats.

Democrats would not support a war against Iran. — RogueAI

Many would. As always, if the pretense is right, they’ll go right along. Probably not with Trump in office though.

Do you see why what you said was really stupid? — RogueAI

Given that you say some of the stupidest things on this forum, and can barely keep up in this conversation without making up diversions, I’d be weary of accusing anyone of stupidity.

Hungary's opposition rallies as Orban pledges crackdown on media, NGOs
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-vows-fast-crackdown-media-ngos-over-foreign-funding-2025-03-15/

Romanians rally to show support for Europe amid election tensions
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romanians-rally-show-support-europe-amid-election-tensions-2025-03-15/

Tens of thousands converge in Serbia's capital for protest against corruption
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/03/15/large-crowds-converge-in-serbia-s-capital-for-protest-against-corruption_6739183_4.html

Mass protests against PM Fico’s pro-Russian turn continue across Slovakia
https://intellinews.com/mass-protests-against-pm-fico-s-pro-russian-turn-continue-across-slovakia-370809/

Given that you say some of the stupidest things on this forum, and can barely keep up in this conversation without making up diversions, I’d be weary of accusing anyone of stupidity. — Mikie

?

, some protests in the US also:

https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/nation/2025/03/14/va-veterans-cuts-doge/82418660007/

None reported in Russia, though. That'd be dangerous or illegal.

Why would Zelensky go for that deal? If I'm Zelensky, and I can count on EU support and probably U.S. support, aren't I hoping Russia will get tired of all this, like in Afghanistan? Or there will be another coup against Putin? Or Putin might die and be replaced by a moderate? Or the Russian economy suddenly implode? Or a WW1 style French mutiny happen? There are a lot of ways this could end in Ukraine's favor and not all of them are fanciful.

It seems to me that both sides are like exhausted bloody boxers, and Russia is ahead on points, but Ukraine is thinking, if we can hold on another three rounds, and just get a knockout blow....

What I’m talking about is Trump’s efforts to agree a ceasefire. He’s been blackmailing Zelenskyy and offering Putin whatever he want’s.

If Trump wasn’t doing this, then the war would probably end in some sort of stalemate. But both sides are quite entrenched, so it would have a high cost in human lives.

What I’m talking about is Trump’s efforts to agree a ceasefire. He’s been blackmailing Zelenskyy and offering Putin whatever he want’s.

If Trump wasn’t doing this, then the war would probably end in some sort of stalemate. But both sides are quite entrenched, so it would have a high cost in human lives. — Punshhh

Well, the arms shipments and intelligence sharing is back on, so Zelensky's position is status quo, and the status quo is Ukraine is not going to cede territory, not if they can keep counting on EU and U.S. support. But let's say Trump cancels all aide to Ukraine and won't offer any security guarantees for any peace deal. Would Zelensky give up 20% of Ukraine then? Why would he? He knows that Putin will simply regroup and rebuild his military and come at him again.

Oops wrong thread.

Serbia's largest-ever rally sees 325,000 protest against government
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2g8v32q30o

Yet another coup by the CIA... dah

Article explaining the Putin strategy in reference to the peace talks. He is using the talks to drive a wedge between the European alliance and the U.S. While the European alliance is frantically trying to keep the U.S. with Europe.
https://europewithoutamerica.substack.com/p/the-charade-of-ukraine-ceasefire

providing Ukraine with whatever it needs to defend itself, either supplied from Europe where possible or bought by Europe from elsewhere and given to the Ukrainians if not

European action must now start from the premise that the US cannot be trusted, or relied upon

OK where else should Europeans buy weapons for Ukraine from? China? If China accepts. And Turkey? If Turkey accepts (South Korea too). But if China accepts, then this may set greater pressure on the relation between China and Russia, and between the US and the EU. The same goes with Turkey, because Turkey could be a problem for Russia: since Turkey aims at expanding their sphere of influence in Central Asia. But Turkey could be also a problem for Israel (US ally), since Turkey aims at expanding its sphere of influence in Syria.

If Europeans buy from the US, the problem is still there: dependence on the US + the US (as unreliable partner) could impose constraints on selling weapons to Europeans to help Ukraine. (By the way what if the US sells weapons/intelligence to Russia against Europe/Ukraine?)

Of course. Trump wants to overthrow Orban because... 4D Chess?

Article explaining the Putin strategy in reference to the peace talks. He is using the talks to drive a wedge between the European alliance and the U.S. While the European alliance is frantically trying to keep the U.S. with Europe. — Punshhh

For Putin the first objective is to destroy NATO, the secondary objective is to destroy the EU.

OK where else should Europeans buy weapons for Ukraine from? — neomac

Unlike Saudi-Arabia, which has money but no industry or professional workforce, EU can make everything that they need, if they just want it. Including yes, starting from nukes.

You do understand that when European NATO countries agree to raise their defense spending, that spending will go mainly to their own defense industry and NOT to the US defense industry.

A little thing that Trump doesn't understand...

↪neomac
Of course. Trump wants to overthrow Orban because... 4D Chess? — ssu

I was ironic... remember pro-Russians complaining about Euromaiden as a coup?
However I think Trump may be interested to stir far-right European (anti-EU) nationalists on his side and also steal them from Putin's grip.

EU can make everything that they need, if they just want it. Including yes, starting from nukes. — ssu

What is the time frame given the Ukrainian urgent needs?

You do understand that when European NATO countries agree to raise their defense spending, that spending will go mainly to their own defense industry and NOT to the US defense industry. — ssu

I'll understand the need for this to happen, but I'm less sure to what extent this is feasible in the short term. Poland and Italy for example look more vulnerable to Trump's demands than France or the UK. On the other side, while the European countries that are less reluctant to engage with Putin, are likely more compelled to pursue strategic independence from the US defense industry than those more reluctant to engage with Putin, the latter could also be less interested to re-arm against Russia in general.

The Baltics and Nordic Nations Should Discuss Acquiring Their Own Nuclear Deterrent with Poland
https://balticsentinel.eu/8207598/finnish-researcher-the-baltics-and-nordic-nations-should-discuss-acquiring-their-own-nuclear-deterrent-with-poland

What is the time frame given the Ukrainian urgent needs? — neomac

That's the real question. Basically they first have to dip even more into their own equipment. But for example Finland is sending prototype equipment there to be used in real war, which is far more better than the occasional limited testing of a weapon system. Basically something can be done in six months, a lot in 12 months. Basically in six months Ukraine will be in a very difficult position, if the US basically leaves it on the mercy of the Russians. So the question is basically what Europe can do in few months and in a year.

The money is there, but now it's a question of sending equipment and production bottlenecks.

Non-US users of the F-16 have pledged 85 flyable F-16s for Ukraine, which 18 have been sent. I guess at least one has been lost. Before, Biden's US trained the pilots, gave ALQ-131 ECM pods and so on.

European replacement (or addition) is an aircraft like Mirage 2000, which is now in service with Ukraine. What is notable that these can fire Storm Shadow missiles and are far more survivable than the old SU-24 fighterbombers that Ukraine has used as a missile platform. In the future, one really good fighter would be the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen, which would fit the needs of Ukraine perhaps better. But even few Mirage 2000-5F do make a difference to nothing.

The initial batch of Mirage 2000-5F jets touched down in Ukraine after a six-month training program for Ukrainian pilots and technicians, conducted at air bases in eastern and southwestern France. Lecornu announced the arrival on social media, noting that the aircraft, flown by Ukrainian crews, would now contribute to defending the country’s skies.

While the exact number of jets delivered remains undisclosed for security reasons, a French parliamentary budget report from late 2024 indicated that six of the French Air Force’s 26 Mirage 2000-5F aircraft were earmarked for transfer. The delivery aligns with a timeline Macron outlined in June 2024, when he pledged the jets during a visit from Zelensky commemorating the D-Day landings.

Since their arrival, the Mirages have been integrated into Ukraine’s air fleet, joining F-16s supplied by nations like the Netherlands and Denmark, as part of a Western effort to enhance Kyiv’s aerial capabilities.

Evidence suggests the Mirage 2000 jets saw combat action shortly after their arrival. On March 7, 2025, Ukrainian officials reported that the French-supplied aircraft participated in repelling a large-scale Russian air attack involving missiles and drones targeting cities across the country.

(Ukrainian Mirage 2000 shooting down a Russian missile)

The Baltics and Nordic Nations Should Discuss Acquiring Their Own Nuclear Deterrent with Poland
https://balticsentinel.eu/8207598/finnish-researcher-the-baltics-and-nordic-nations-should-discuss-acquiring-their-own-nuclear-deterrent-with-poland — neomac

This is the logical outcome of what Trump has put rolling. Trump simply hasn't understood the effects of what he has just done. But this (nuclear weapons, going off the non-proliferation treaties) is still behind closed doors and something that likely politicians aren't ready to market people. For now, it's just something that researchers can talk about.

But it is quite evident is that the US wouldn't go to WW3 over the Baltic States. At least with Trump at the helm. So this is a real issue. Poland takes this dead seriously. Sweden would have the capability, they already did produce nuclear weapon, yet there would have to be huge discussion about this. Or then things would have to get a lot more worse.

An European nuclear weapons crash program wouldn't take many years to do. It would be something done very rapidly. The real issue is to make the people accept a nuclear program. The option of just sticking one's head in the sand and repeating that the US will be there (and France's nuclear weapons are enough) is very tempting denial.

And actually, we aren't talking anymore about think-tank researchers or academicians talking about nuclear deterrence. In the case of Poland, the need for a nuclear deterrent has already been talked by the prime minister.


And we can thank Donald & JD for all of this.

Trump weighs recognizing Russian control over Crimea as part of peace deal
https://tass.com/world/1929567

Have they shιt all over Ukraine yet (again)? Reports a couple of months apart:

Donald Trump Said He'd End Ukraine War in First 24 Hours. He Hasn't
^{— Brendan Cole · Newsweek · Jan 23, 2025}
We've never been closer to a Ukraine peace deal, White House says ahead of Trump-Putin talks
^{— Johanna Chisholm et al · BBC · Mar 17, 2025}

I guess it turned out differently. Well, he was just "a little bit sarcastic".

:up:

16:11 Right now, 500 million Europeans are begging 300 million Americans for protection
16:17 from 140 million Russians who have been unable to overcome 50 million Ukrainians for three years.”
16:24 Well, when you put it like that, it’s almost embarrassing.

Impressive summary

Have they shιt all over Ukraine yet (again)? Reports a couple of months apart: — jorndoe

During the debate, prior to the election, Trump said that if he is elected, the war would be ended before he even takes office, because he knows Putin really really well.

Actually he said that he knows both Putin and Zelenskyi well.

Yet that promise was understandably in the promises like "Build a wall and have Mexico pay for it."

What really changed everything was the US to truly align with Russia, as Kremlin has acknowledged itself. And then...

- Bully and harass Zelenskyi
- block all support for Ukraine, upgrades to weapon-systems, satellite information, weapons deliveries alreadt been on the way to Ukraine (even if afterwards resumed, naturally without any additional help to be given)
- even at Rubio and Elon belittling the Polish foreign minister when he dared to say that actually Poland was paying for the commercial use of the Starlink in Ukraine.

End result: the US is an untrustworthy ally that likely with Trump at helm won't lift a finger in the defense treaty. Trump may even walk out of NATO, if he would have his wish. Europe has to act and understand just like Canada, that Trump's regime isn't a friend or an ally.

If Europeans buy from the US, the problem is still there: dependence on the US + the US (as unreliable partner) could impose constraints on selling weapons to Europeans to help Ukraine. (By the way what if the US sells weapons/intelligence to Russia against Europe/Ukraine?)

I’m not qualified to answer these questions. What I would say those is that it is a very fluid situation. They may buy from the U.S. initially while they build up their own capacity. U.S. foreign policy might change back in favour of supporting Ukraine at any time( it is continuing now). The Democrats might win the next election.
Also it might not require a lot to contain Russia as things are progressing in Ukraine now.

So the Trump / Putin call seems to have gone better than I would have expected.

A pause on strikes on energy infrastructure will probably save civilian lives, which is a good thing. It's unclear to me who gets the most advantage out of it currently in military terms, but even if we take it as limiting Ukrainian options it's far from the worst concession that could be asked of them.

Two thirds of the German Bundestag voted for huge increases in defense expenditure and to allow to take far more debt than the "debt brake" would have allowed. To be voted next Friday in the upper house also.

The defence plans approved today by the Bundestag also allow spending on aid for states "attacked in violation of international law" to be exempt from the debt brake.

That will enable outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz to release €3bn in aid to Ukraine as early as next week.

A good couple of weeks ago, the Trump team more or less assaulted Zelenskyy at the White House, and now ...

‘No one has been played as hard as Trump’: Reaction to Trump and Putin’s phone call (— MSNBC · Mar 18, 2025 · 10m:45s)


But, OK, the 10-minute clip didn't have Trump to comment. Starting to feel sorry for the guy.

From the little that has been released to the media the talks while cordial, were a failure in terms of agreeing anything positive regarding a ceasefire.
Trump is basically agreeing with everything Putin says, while probably saying pretty please, I want a ceasefire, so I can claim my Nobel Peace prize.

I doubt Trump and the yes men surrounding him have any idea what game Putin is playing, as they will have sacked any Kremlinologists that were near government.
Putin is playing a classic game of diversion and delay while picking up any concessions he can along the way. He’ll end up with a long list of things Trump agreed to, conceded, or didn’t oppose before he(Putin) agrees to anything. And he’ll wave the list in Trump’s face and say, my first requirement is that this list is fully agreed to before I come to the table.

Plus he will be convincing Trump of the narrative about Nazi’s trying to take over Ukraine, necessitating a special military operation to remove them etc etc.

Pro-Kiev Italians Collapse

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine:

57% of Italians do not support either side (three years ago it was 28%);
32% of Italians support the Ukrainian cause ;
11% of Italians are on Russia's side .

source: https://eurofocus-adnkronos-com.translate.goog/politics/crolla-sostegno-italiani-kiev-sondaggio-ipsos-dati/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Trump wants to take over Ukraine's power supply. And he is looking to expand the Union.

Zelenskyy might consider calling Trump's bluff by offering Ukraine as the 51st state, threatening the US with a direct conflict with Russia, but with the benefit of a huge wealth of what the Orange Emperor calls "raw earths".

Trump is seeking to manipulate the war to benefit 'merican business. Zelensky might consider giving him what he wants. Then Trump might develop an appreciation of the complexity of the problem.

Then Trump might develop an appreciation of the complexity of the problem. — Banno

I really don’t think that’s in him. He doesn’t do complexity or nuance.

yes, indeed. That was said with some irony. But the disruptive emperor requires novel strategies.

He can probably tell when someone is trying to pull the wool over his eyes. The question is though, will he do anything about it, or just roll over?

Tourist Detentions at the U.S. Border: What International Visitors Should Know
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/travel/us-border-crossing-international-visa.html?partner=slack