As I've been discussing with Tzeentch, one possibility is the US wants to more-or-less start collapsing the global economy by massive chaos in the various Eurasian "crossroads". @Tzeentch views events in line with this general geopolitical strategy. — boethius

I have to correct you here.

My point was not that the US is trying to crash the global economy, but that it is trying to disrupt land-based trade connections between its main rivals in order to maintain control of global trade.

Yes, I am very sure about my point. It is dreamy to think that there is a chance to come back to the context prior to October 7th. This date did critical damage to the collective thought and soul of Israel. Like to the Americans in September 11th or here in 2004 Madrid bomb attacks. Do not expect to go back to pre-10/7 life. It looks like it is acceptable to take Sinwar out because he is a terrorist. But this is the way Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, etc. think about Netanyahu. They will keep attempting to take him out. Will you feel safe in a nation whose president is in perpetual thread with their neighbours? Then, this will be another reason for Netanyahu to keep bombing, and this is why I can't see peace in the long term.


You are viewing this conflict through a European lens.
— BitconnectCarlos

And you are viewing this conflict through a religious lens because:

God grants victories.
— BitconnectCarlos

What God?
What religious text? Quran or Talmud?
What prophet? Muhammad or Abraham?
See? This conflict is endless because it always leads to religious differences and hostility. I am right and you are wrong because my holy book says so; don't try to argue why. — javi2541997

I'm saying maybe the Palestinians are getting tired of war and just want peace (which would happen if the hostages were returned but Hamas keeps refusing). And Iran may keep attempting to kill Bibi, but that doesn't mean he's wrong. Being the target of assassination attempts is not a shameful thing. It is the price of having enemies, and some forces like Iran are wicked and must be opposed regardless of whether they use some measures or not.

I am mentioning the conflict through a religious lens because that is the lens of the participants of the conflict. So it's noteworthy -- especially when there are similarities. Both groups view military victories as granted by God and defeat as likely a sign of divine disfavor. Therefore defeat brings discouragement and questioning from both sides. It would be a very different matter if Hamas was wildly successful, then the Palestinians would be bolstered.

I think the better explanation is that Israel / US simply have no practical way to defeat Iran.

They've been in a delusional driven genocide with constant escalation to try to distract from the Genocide internationally (new enemies to continue to be the victim) and also maintain credibility domestically of being the superior race that can go around killing all their enemies. — boethius

The US politicians are just in the pocket of the Israel lobby thanks to mainly the Pro-Israeli Christians in the electorate, not just the American Jewish community. It's quite obvious that the US doesn't want the kind of "final solution" which the Netanyahu government hopes it can do somehow. These things take a lot of time to change, but I think they are changing.

But do notice that you have two different administrations and states here.

The spell of invincibility broke between due to Iran's missile attack demonstrating Israeli air defence doesn't work so well (so Iran can cause significant damage conventionally) and also the pentagon simply having no plan to actually defeat Iran (Israel overconfidence likely includes overconfidence in US capacity as well). — boethius

I have to agree with you. Those missiles hitting Nevatim Air base really were hitting Nevatim air base. And the US is in no position to occupy Iran.

Nuclear weapons hinder the pace of going up the escalatory ladder, but they don't keep states from fighting each other ...as long as the fighting is "limited" in scale. Argentina could attack easily the UK as there really was no threat of a nuclear mushroom cloud engulfing Buenos Aires. The UK wouldn't use nukes to defend few inhabitants and sheep in the Falklands. Also Pakistan and India could have a border war even with nuclear arms on both sides. And North and South Korea can engage in firefights then and now.

Hence the unfortunate reality is that it would be logical now for Iran to get it's nuclear weapon. The US will attack only nations that have potential nuclear weapons, but not a large and dispersed nuclear deterrent. That's why it's totally possible that Iran does have few nukes already.

The UN sat by for years while Hezbollah constructed terror installations when it was in the UN's deliberate mission to disarm them. — BitconnectCarlos

The truth is that the UN can perform only a limited things well. It can be between two sides, when both sides accept this. But it's laughable to think the UN could act like a superpower. Really, the Korean war fought under the UN flag happened only because China was represented by the nation now known as Taiwan and the Soviets had foolishly boycotted the Security Council and wasn't there to veto the thing.

The idea that the UN could "disarm" Hezbollah is ludicrous. If the IDF with all it's might couldn't disarm Hezbollah while occupying Lebanon last time, how could a small contingent of a battalion size or so lightly armed blue berets do that?

But I guess that was this kind of agreement that all sides could OK in the Security Council, while knowing it wouldn't happen. Many actions are hypocritical.

However, "when shit hits the fan" as it were and you need daily approval of the president for all sorts of military actions and responses, then the inability to predict Trump is a problem. — boethius

In such a case he'll probably defer to a third party because he has no idea what the right military course of action would be and doesn't seem to be interested in being heavily involved in these types of situations for long (look at how he approached COVID). It'll probably depend on the people he would surround himself with so we will likely see things deescalate if he hands it off to people like Tucker or Tulsi though there is the (unlikely ATM) risk he appoints some crazy hawk like Bolton. I dunno, what does Project 2025 say about a future Trump cabinet?

Sure, but none of that is on the scale of crashing the global economy in a mad scheme to attack Iran without an endgame. — boethius

Maybe but my sense is that he can do literally anything and his base won't care one bit.

The issue of buying Trump is related in my these only to escalating the genocide, simply to avoid paying for something you can get for free anyways under Biden. — boethius

The one (I guess) good thing I can say about Biden is that although he would ultimately allow these escalations to happen in the end, he may be slowing them down with his constant concerns, which wouldn't happen with Trump. Israel doesn't care about the concerns that the US brings up but they could be slowing down their violations if only to keep up this appearance of listening to them. If the Israelis are impatient and want to nuke Gaza and be done with it, then they may very well be fine with paying some money to speed the genocide process up.

Obviously Trump has no problem wither further violence against the Palestinians, but if he's asked for something he's going to want something in return. — boethius

A small price for AIPAC. The great thing with Trump is that more things are on sale with him, such as the West Bank.

I have to correct you here.

My point was not that the US is trying to crash the global economy, but that it is trying to disrupt land-based trade connections between its main rivals in order to maintain control of global trade. — Tzeentch

Maybe there is some subtlety I missed in your position, but the core of the disagreement seemed to me that you were arguing this Israeli escalation in the Middle-East served US grand strategy interests up to and including a war with Iran.

The central thesis of my rebuttal to this position is that a war with Iran would crash the global economy and I don't see that as serving US grand strategy interests.

If the position is escalation but not to the point of crashing the global economy, my rebuttal to that position is that I just don't see what more chaos the US could possibly need in the Middle-East.

Obviously there was no land trade highway about to be built through Gaza nor Lebanon, so sure trade could pass through Iran and so collapsing Iran could make "sense" in such a strategy but:

A. Genocide isn't needed to provoke a war with Iran and is anyways a liability (my main concern is arguing the genocide serves no plausible US imperial interest), and

B. A war with Iran would crash the global economy (presumably) and I don't see what the US does next ... just keep the rest of the world economy continuously crashed?? Doesn't seem possible to me over any extended period of time, but indeed would just hyper-accelerate building exactly those land corridors of which this strategy is designed to prevent.

Of course I am not disagreeing with the generalities that you present that chaos in these land corridors generally serves the whole Island-navy-vs-land geopolitical strategic approach, just not to the point of actually crashing the global economy that would have plenty of adverse effects and accelerate further opposing coalitions (which we are already seeing by simply disrupting the global economy and threatening the crash Russia as a vital supplier of resources to plenty of countries; they naturally look to secure their survival in building an alternative trading system to that of the US; which, sure, the US could embargo the whole world - I'm not denying their supremacy on the high seas - but where does that actually lead is my issue).

Which mirrors our disagreement also on escalation with China in which your position is the US could embargo China, whereas my position is the same that I see no successful pathway after crashing the global economy.

However, to be clear, I am open to such questions being answered. I'm not claiming such a strategy is impossible for US imperial custodians to be embarked on, only that I don't see what it could be; therefore, given that, I feel the data is best explained by the alternative hypothesis that these escalations serve various coalitions of US elite personal interest merely cloaked in broad strategic terms such as Israel by definition serving US interests somehow, but quite directly at the expense of US grand strategic interest.

Israelis celebrating Spain flood death toll…

[/img]

If we were not members of NATO, we would already have been bombed by spangled-minded Netanyahu; that’s a given.

Hey, @BitconnectCarlos. Look at the representatives of the nice and helpless nation of Israel. Because we should have pity on them! Otherwise, we deserve to be punished by ‘karma’ and God’s mercy and heaven, etc., and the rest of nonexistent things, but what could we expect from an occupier and an artificial nation like Israel? But hey, Carlos, didn’t you say that they are cool people, but they are just a threatened nation or something? What do you say now? Tit for tat, right? If they cheer about the deaths of Spain floods, I will cheer when a Lebanese or Gaza brother takes Netanyahu or another Israeli hateful ass out, right? Do you understand my thoughts on that artificial country now? Because it seems we only have to be empathetic with Jews.

If the blue berets are not going to do their mission (did they even attempt it... at any point?) the least they could do is get out of the way when the real army comes forth to clean up the mess that they helped create.

It doesn't even look like they attempted to enforce resolution 1701. It's not only Israel that has hit them, apparently Hezbollah likely struck a UN headquarters and they need to get out of there. Obviously if Israel had an official policy of striking them many more would be dead.



You're mad at a twitter account with an Israeli flag in it and this is apparently shaping your entire perspective towards the situation.

If the blue berets are not going to do their mission — BitconnectCarlos

What do you think a lightly armed infantry battalion basically can do where IDF has failed (like in 2006)? That simply is ludicrous. UN can do it's work, if sides comply. You obviously don't understand the difference between blueberets and national armed forces.

It doesn't even look like they attempted to enforce resolution 1701. — BitconnectCarlos

How many UN resolutions haven't been enforced?

Like how about this one from September 18th 2024?

With a recorded vote of 124 nations in favour, 14 against, and 43 abstentions, the resolution calls for Israel to comply with international law and withdraw its military forces, immediately cease all new settlement activity, evacuate all settlers from occupied land, and dismantle parts of the separation wall it constructed inside the occupied West Bank.

The General Assembly further demanded that Israel return land and other “immovable property”, as well as all assets seized since the occupation began in 1967, and all cultural property and assets taken from Palestinians and Palestinian institutions.

The resolution also demands Israel allow all Palestinians displaced during the occupation to return to their place of origin and make reparation for the damage caused by its occupation.

You obviously don't understand the difference between blueberets and national armed forces. — ssu

I don't expect them to take out Hezbollah. I would just like to know whether they've taken concrete steps towards completing their purpose. Hezbollah evidently felt comfortable enough with them to build their shelters within meters of UN headquarters. What are they doing there?

Like how about this one from September 18th 2024? — ssu

This appears to be one of the General Assembly, not the Security Council. These are not binding.

Addendum to
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/937315 (re: zionfascism)

My father always said, 'The Zionists love Israel and hate Jews.' — Esther Farmer, A Land With a People: Palestinians and Jews Confront Zionism

:mask:

This appears to be one of the General Assembly, not the Security Council. These are not binding. — BitconnectCarlos

Lol.

Are the Security Council resolutions binding then? Not when it comes to Israel, I think.

All fifteen members voted in favor of Security Council resolution 242. Nobody even abstained.

But who cares, Bibi can ban the secretary general, attack UN organizations and attack UN blue berets and basically simply do whatever he wants. UN is something as the League of Nations during WW2 now in the Middle East. And Bibi is in war mode.

So Bibi got a court order:

Today, on 21 November 2024, Pre-Trial Chamber I of the International Criminal Court (‘Court’), in its composition for the Situation in the State of Palestine, unanimously issued two decisions rejecting challenges by the State of Israel (‘Israel’) brought under articles 18 and 19 of the Rome Statute (the ‘Statute’). It also issued warrants of arrest for Mr Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Yoav Gallant.

And it seems that Bibi is really willing to take Israel to a dark place. But UN, ICC and other institutions don't matter for Israel, when you have a Trump in your pocket.

As one Israeli put it: the proponents of an Apartheid have been replaced by proponents of a Genocide. Now Israel is talking about the "evacuation" of all people from Northern Gaza, so now it's really does seem that Israel is acting it's own "final solution"-type answer for the Palestinian problem. "The Generals plan" is a kind of final solution.

At the start of this conflict when the "Al-Aqsa Flood" attacked was instigated by Hamas, I was still hoping that Israel would fight like the Americans did against Al Qaeda and Isis in Iraq. Destroy the terrorists, yet try to help the civilians. The Americans had nothing against the Iraqi civilians, which showed in the way they fought the terrorists. In the case of the Israeli Palestinian conflict, it isn't so.

Again I have to say that @Benkei was right. In the present and the near future we will witness an ugly chapter in Western history, because I do see Israel being part of the West.

But hey, Azerbaijan successfully ethnically cleansed Nagorno Karabakh and now is feverishly trying to demolish everything linking or heritage to an Armenian past in the Nagorno Karabakh. So what is called a war crime and genocide worsk in the World. Yes, Israel can be angry that the Azeris seem to get a free pass in it's successful ethnic cleansing operation while they are getting flak from the World. Oh, the anti-semitism in the World!

(Meanwhile, in Nagorno Karabakh)

I was still hoping that Israel would fight like the Americans did against Al Qaeda and Isis in Iraq. Destroy the terrorists, yet try to help the civilians. — ssu

There are many more Hamas in Gaza than ISIS in Iraq. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't even seem like the US needs to be in Iraq. It just seems as if they've gone ISIS hunting overseas in a completely optional engagement. There are no hostages to rescue. There are no missiles being launched in the US. The US chose this fight and they could leave it. Israel does not have such a luxury.

If this confrontation were on the US border with rockets being launched into the US & there were hostages to rescue the situation would be completely different.

If this confrontation were on the US border with rockets being launched into the US & there were hostages to rescue the situation would be completely different. — BitconnectCarlos

If hotheads like you would be given the say how to fight the war, sure. The objective would be to get pleasure from seeking revenge, which is an emotional response. Yet professional soldiers are far more logical. War is a continuation of policy and the objectives should be clear from the start. Excessive force creates resentment and one has to take into account how other actors will respond to your actions, if they seem excessive.

Here the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a perfect example of how differently the Azeris were to the Netanyahu's govenment. When the Azerbaijan overran Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azeri president declared that they had no intention of forcing the Armenians out. And Baku made it clear that it would to “reintegrate” the region and its remaining population into Azerbaijan, promising economic development. Baku talked about normalizing relations and reaching a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh did flee to Armenia proper and the actions now show just how hypocrite that talk was from the Azeris, yet the reality is that the Azeris got away with this large part because they talked about a peace and talked about upholding minority rights.

Azerbaijan says it has pledged to ensure all residents’ safety and security, regardless of national or ethnic origin, and that it has not forced ethnic Armenians to leave Karabakh.

Denial works. Yet the Israeli line has been totally different from this. Hardly anytime has somebody be ever so clear with their intent. Talking of evil cities and how every resident in Gaza is culpable because they years ago voted for Hamas is a way to keep that rage up. Then saying after some timeline everyone in Northern Gaza is considered a combatant isn't the way it goes. Simply rule based order or international agreements don't matter. At least they are totally honest in what they want to do.

I remember what a fellow student in the university said to me about the Israeli-Palestine conflict in the 1990's: There will be never peace. He was one of the smartest students and he had been a blue beret in Lebanon. And he was right. The conflict defines people: the Nakba is a crucial part of Palestinian identity as is this conflict for the Israelis too.

Still nothing.

Amnesty International investigation concludes Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza

Same shit, different day.

Is there anything left to say at this point?

Ah, yes, there's plenty to say about the continued carte blanche support and how our president, as representative of the Netherlands - the country hosting the ICC - is looking for possibilities of Netanyahu to visit the Netherlands without him getting arrested.

Even Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof got under the feathers of his Minister of Foreign Affairs on November 29 by talking about “scenarios” that could prevent Netanyahu’s arrest on Dutch soil. Earlier, Schoof suggested that a visit by a suspect to an international organization such as the OPCW (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons) could perhaps serve as an escape route. This form of ‘ingenuity’ is undesirable, and would undermine the status of international law – and thus the rule of law that this cabinet claims to embrace – in any case. The relativizing words actually do that. — Ko Colijn (machine translated)

Let him visit. See what happens.

Ah, yes, there's plenty to say about the continued carte blanche support and how our president, as representative of the Netherlands - the country hosting the ICC - is looking for possibilities of Netanyahu to visit the Netherlands without him getting arrested. — Benkei

:grin: The problems of the present day politicians.

@ssu What's the likelihood the buffer zone they just took in Syria won't be all that temporary?

Edit: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/09/israel-seizes-syrian-buffer-zone-amid-airstrikes-on-regime-weapons-depots

Anyone still doubting Israel is run by a bunch of fanatical belligerents? Just the sycophants obviously of which we have our fair share here.

Denial works. Yet the Israeli line has been totally different from this. Hardly anytime has somebody be ever so clear with their intent. Talking of evil cities and how every resident in Gaza is culpable because they years ago voted for Hamas is a way to keep that rage up. — ssu

The US spoke in similar terms about enemies in Vietnam and Japan. Yet neither were genocides. The population of Gaza has risen by ~2% since last year never has there been a genocide where the victim population actually rose. The idea is preposterous. And of course Israel could wipe them out immediately if they really wanted as Israel has heavy weaponry. The facts simply don't bare it out the charge of genocide.

After 9/11 Bush said he'd make no distinction between terrorists and those who harbor them. Sounds like a justification for genocide, no? :chin:

In the aftermath of a brutal tragedy what kind of rhetoric are we expecting??

The US spoke in similar terms about enemies in Vietnam and Japan. Yet neither were genocides. The population of Gaza has risen by ~2% since last year never has there been a genocide where the victim population actually rose. The idea is preposterous. And of course Israel could wipe them out immediately if they really wanted as Israel has heavy weaponry. The facts simply don't bare it out the charge of genocide. — BitconnectCarlos

I'm not going to point to the definition of genocide for the fifth time in this thread. But you're wrong. Go look up the internationally agreed definition of genocide when everybody still agreed on it.

After 9/11 Bush said he'd make no distinction between terrorists and those who harbor them. Sounds like a justification for genocide, no? — BitconnectCarlos

Also, let's not get into all the war crimes Bush committed shall we?

For those actually not fanatical supporters of Israel and therefore lost causes both morally and politically, here's the Amnesty report on genocide by Israel: report

Netanyahu can now be mentioned in one breadth with the likes of:

Hitler
Mugabe
Pol Pot

Also, let's not get into all the war crimes Bush committed shall we? — Benkei

The US also committed them in WWII, especially in the Pacific theater where US troops rarely took prisoners as the Japanese had a nasty habit of blowing themselves up upon being taken prisoner.

But of course instead of making difficult decisions in the field regarding how to treat such an issue, one could always just surrender to the enemy. Then one would be innocent and blameless. Or abide by the rules even when it significantly impairs one's chances for victory.

The free world was secured through brutality, don't ever forget it. Then again perhaps you'd be happier with a German-speaking Europe (that does mean no Israel). And how dare Israel seize land that rightfully belongs to the caliphate.

ssu What's the likelihood the buffer zone they just took in Syria won't be all that temporary? — Benkei

Sigh.

That's the real problem here. First it's a security zone. Intended to create a distance between the now annexed Golan Heights and possible mortars and small rockets fired from Syria (hypothetical that is, because nobody has been shelling Israel from Syria proper). Perhaps then the crazy fanatics in Bibi's administration will have dreams of enlarging the Golan Heights to have new settlements. But before that, it's going similar to Lebanon south of the Litani river, a low intensity conflict with some brief eruptions here and then. A "cease fire" here is something that there are only some, perhaps under ten, occasions or strikes or artillery firings.

The heavy handed and violent response of the IDF will create firefights and a tit-for-tat low level conflict will prevail, because those IDF forces surely won't act (as never have acted) with rules of engagement like the US armed forces does in the area. The IDF rules of engagement are very low on using deadly force. Israeli tanks firing on UN bases shows this attitude. Now IDF is trying to destroy that few remnants of Syrian military, like going after the navy, also shows that there's no trust here.

And this is a basic worry with Syria. Syrians left alone (like Trump said) could really win the peace, but too many actors can be totally satisfied if Syria is the next Lebanon: a country that you can bomb, put your own or proxy troops into and play the great Middle Eastern game. We have to remember that Syria itself occupied for some time Lebanon, so the Syrians weren't innocent in this either. It might not be just Israel, but Turkey and Erdogan might also be happy to have the ability to attack the kurds in Syria an have a proxy army inside the country.

This is the real threat, not the whimsical idea that ISIS will take over Syria or that the Syrians would want to spread Jihad be sponsors of terrorism. For the real ISIS, the HTS are already apostates, that have to be fought.

I said let's not get into it. Focus on learning the basics of international law. You can start with looking up the genocide convention. I'm not interested in discussing politics with a religious zealout.

Then there's inherent complex problems in this situation. And here issue like the oil fields. With oil fields now controlled by the SDF is something that Turkey (Turkiye) won't like. If the US withdraws totally from Syria and loses interest, there's a big potential danger that basically Erdogan goes after the Kurds in Syria as Netanyahu went after Hezbollah in Lebanon and the rest of Syria being bystanders, just like the Lebanese Army is in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.

The US-backed SDF controls a quarter of Syrian territory, including the resource-rich area east of the Euphrates, which holds 90% of Syria's oil and more than half of its natural gas fields, as well as infrastructure owned by foreign companies through contracts signed with Damascus.

The SDF's pumping and production of the oil is illegal and contrary to international sanctions but nevertheless continues, with ordinary Syrians yet to benefit.

Because of the sanctions, this oil cannot be sold on international markets so is sold on the black market at a fraction of its real value, reported to be around $15 per barrel.

On 15 August 2023, officials from the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (the political wing of the SDF) claimed they controlled less than half the wells and fields in its areas of influence.

* * *

The natality rate for Palestine is 24 births per 1000 population. If Gaza has 2 million people, then if I can count right, there should be about 48 000 children born every year. Estimates of those that have been killed in Gaza is something like 41 000 - 45 000 now. That would be in the US perspective like 7,4 million Americans having been killed. Yet by your argumentation, 7,4 million killed Americans wouldn't be a genocide, if the population through immigration and population growth would counter this! Well, your "open" southern border isn't giving you so many new immigrants and Americans aren't having as many babies as Palestinians, the US population growth is just 0,5%.

But think of the happy side to this. When Trump kicks out every 33rd person living in the US, your population count will actually decrease! :grin:

And please learn the actual definition of a genocide. For example what Azerbaijan did in Nagorno-Karabakh can be viewed as a genocide, because ethnic cleansing (without killing) is still considered a genocidal act. Yet unlike Bibi's administration, they publicly denied of any such intent.

Article II of the Genocide Convention contains a narrow definition of the crime of genocide, which includes two main elements:

1) A mental element: the "intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such"; and

2) A physical element, which includes the following five acts, enumerated exhaustively:
a) Killing members of the group
b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group
c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part
d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group
e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

Time to leave Artsakh! Genocides can happen this way too.