• Roger Gregoire
    133
    The NON-TRUTHS of Our Current Covid-19 Policy

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    Non-Truth # 1 - People get infected by other people. This is technically not true.

    People get infected by being in contaminated environments (i.e. from viruses in the air or on surfaces that ultimately transfer into one's respiratory system).

    Note: People's respiratory systems are not directly connected to each other's, and therefore do not infect each other. The correct view is that people are either "contributors" of the virus into the environment, or they are "removers" of the virus from the environment. One or the other.

    Those with healthy immune systems, when infected, attack and kill the virus, thereby "removing" more of the virus from the environment, than they contribute. Those with weak immune systems, when infected, allow the virus to replicate unabated; thereby "contributing" more of the virus into the environment, than they remove.

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    Non-Truth # 2 - Healthy people (including the asymptomatic, previously infected, and recently vaccinated people) when infected, "contribute" more of the virus, back into the environment than they "remove". This is a blatant non-truth.

    The Rt value for healthy people is <1 whereas the Rt value for vulnerable people is >1 (note: Rt = rate of transmission; <1 means stops more of the virus than transmits, and >1 means transmits more of the virus than stops). If this non-truth was truth, then the protective effect of herd immunity would be impossible, and herd immunity would then just be a fairy tale.

    Logically, the only way healthy immune people can provide a "protective effect" (herd immunity), is if they stop/absorb/kill the virus around them (in their local environment), ...in other words, herd immunity is only possible if healthy people are the "removers" of the virus, for if everyone "contributed" to the virus, then no one could ever provide a "protective effect".

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    Non-Truth # 3 - The protective effect of herd immunity doesn't kick in until we reach the herd immunity threshold. This is another blatant non-truth.

    The protective effect is not like a "light switch" that begins protecting vulnerable people when we reach the magical threshold point. The threshold value is just the theoretical percentage needed to stop the virus altogether. The protective effect begins immediately with any addition of (non-masked) healthy people within a group of vulnerable people.

    Note: The protective effect of herd immunity is achieved by adding healthy people to a given contaminated environment with vulnerable people so as to reduce the overall "density" of the virus exposure to the individual vulnerable person. The amount of the virus within a given environment, divided by the total number of people within that environment dictate the initial odds of a person getting infected. And then, the ratio of healthy people to total people within that same environment, multiplied by the initial odds, yields the "protective effect". This is the correct equation for determining the protective effect of herd immunity.

    To help illustrate:

    Imagine 10 people inside a room with 10 mosquitos flying about. Further imagine that 0 (none) of these people are healthy (a mosquito bite does not bother them) and all 10 people are vulnerable, whereas a mosquito bite would result in a severe reaction and certain death. So the odds of a vulnerable person dying from a mosquito bite in this scenario is 100% (10 mosquitos / 10 total people) which equals 10 dead people.

    Now imagine we add 10 healthy people to this room (environment) of 10 vulnerable people. So now the odds of a vulnerable person dying from a mosquito bite in this scenario is 50% (10 mosquitos / 20 total people) which equals 5 dead people.

    Now imagine we told these 10 healthy people in the room to strip down naked to expose 10 times more body surface area for the mosquitoes to bite, and then put the excess clothing around the vulnerable people to give them an extra layer of protection. So now the odds of a vulnerable person dying from a mosquito bite in this scenario is 5% (10 mosquitos/(20 total people x 10 times more exposure to healthy people and more protection to vulnerable people)) which equals 0.5 dead people.

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    Non-Truth # 4 - Continued masking and social distancing of our recently vaccinated people will help us end this virus sooner by reaching the herd immunity threshold faster. This again is another blatant non-truth.

    We cannot get a "protective effect" by people hiding from the herd (i.e. people that continue to social distance themselves from others in society). Herd immunity requires immune people to integrate (mix) back into the herd (society) so as to create the protective effect.

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    MORAL OF THE STORY: Our current covid policy is wholly irrational, and is based on bad science; science that disregards logic.

    The continued masking and social distancing of our healthy population will only allow this virus to continue to grow and mutate unabated. Vaccines are useless if we don't unmask our recently vaccinated, and allow them (along with our healthy population, and those previously infected) to participate in achieving herd immunity.
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