Because you keep talking about Trump. :lol:

What I do know is that you have left out some key players that play an important role in determining what will happen. — Fooloso4

How will Trump influence whether Biden goes to war with Iran and its proxies or not?

You seem intent on linking escalation in the Middle-East to Trump, via the Israel lobby. Regardless of what I think of Trump, I don't think that's a serious argument. It's a bit cartoonish.

I mean, this could go the other way. If Biden doesn't do anything in the Middle East, Trump will use it as a case that he is the backchannel savior (ala Nixon during Vietnam). — schopenhauer1

The Biden administration is doing what Israel wants - giving Israel cart blanche, blocking Security Council resolutions and continuing to funnel weapons and ammunition to Israel, even circumventing Congress if it has to, etc.

The "pressure" the administration puts is not actual pressure at all. It's simply what Biden has to do to avoid looking like a complete stooge, and Israel understands this is how it works.

Trump seems to me very much against this type of 'final solution' business in the Middle-East, so I personally find it very hard to believe he would try to profile himself as an even greater Middle-East hawk.


Meanwhile, the Biden administration hasn't stopped pointing fingers at Iran since the Oct. 7th attacks, so there's probably a lot of people wondering why he hasn't gone to war with Iran yet. In for a penny, in for a pound.

Trump is anti anything that will not be to his benefit. Support of Israel is to his benefit when it comes to his base. — Fooloso4

No, that's too simple. Any American president has to "support" Israel. The question is what that support looks like.

It's not very likely Trump would support Israel in its current actions, simply because it would almost guarantee that the US will get embroiled in various wars in the Middle-East, and thus not serve Trump's isolationist views.

Israel/the lobby know that full well. They might use Trump, but the chance that they'll actually support him over Biden is very slim. But they will use Trump to pressure Biden for sure.

In fact, the Trump phenomenon may give the Biden administration room to get away with a lot, including another war in the Middle-East against Iran and/or its proxies.

The neocons no longer play a significant role in American politics. — Fooloso4

:brow: Disagreed. What do you think the US is doing in Ukraine?

If you do not understand the importance of the Religious Right you cannot give a plausible analysis of the part Israel plays. They are pro-Israel Zionists. — Fooloso4

Yes. The Israel lobby consists of various uncouth interest groups including Zionist Christians. I'm well-aware.

With the indiscriminate killing in Gaza Biden is well aware that support for Netanyahu's Israel may be working against him with liberal, moderate, and independent voters. — Fooloso4

The question is whether that will weigh heavier than the lobby's influence. But yes, Biden is obviously between a rock and a hard place in that regard - that's part of the aforementioned perfect storm.

First, your characterization of "a cynical plot" is markedly different from mine. I called it a perfect storm of perverse incentives, not a plot.

Next, you must understand that Trump is anti-establishment, and neither the neocons nor Israel (or the lobby) want him as president because of his isolationism. Of course these parties will happily use Trump to pressure Biden. Especially because the Israel lobby doesn't like Biden to begin with, so Trump isn't completely off the cards. Playing both sides is standard for these interest groups.

But Biden is clearly the easier one to control, and he's a neocon. Trump is a wild card and isolationist.

The Biden administration are the ones who gave Netanyahu cart blanche, and have been pointing fingers at Iran non-stop since the start of the conflict. Further, they've even circumvented congress to continue weapon sales to Israel, making the US complicit in Israel's crimes, which may very well be genocidal.

So it's clear Biden is trying to appease Israel, which may very well be what causes him to start this war - to cement support from the notoriously capricious lobby. If he acts like a stooge, the lobby will play him like a stooge and milk him for what he's worth.

If he refuses, the lobby will pressure him, quite possibly along with other interest groups who desire wider war, like the MIC, etc. And of course then the question is whether he caves or not. I think there's a good chance he does.

And in Israel, meanwhile...

Settlement Mega-event Calls for Jewish Return to Gaza

A third of Netanyahu's cabinet was present.

A very powerful talk by Chris Hedges. He pulls no punches.

Republicans — Fooloso4

Oh, sweet summer child.

What I see here is a process of the US slowly but determinedly sucked into the quagmire of a Middle Eastern conflict, which isn't beneficial for itself, but works well especially for Bibi. If Israel (or the US) attacks Iranian assets in lets say Lebanon and Syria (as has been done), Iran let's it "Axis of Resistance" go on with their agenda by giving them materiel. — ssu

I agree.

Israel is sensing US overstretch, and realizes that if the US now gets stuck in a conflict elsewhere, say Korea, Taiwan, etc. Israel may be on its own for the foreseeable future.

I wouldn't be surprised if they are trying to make sure the conflict the US eventually gets stuck in is the one that borders on their interests.

Well, they've managed for a good while, almost surrounded by hostiles/unfriendlies in superior numbers on the ground. (Though not exactly all as efficiently as Entebbe 1976.) Looking back, I kind of get the impression that they built out a (modern) society in a desert, however discriminatory/thefty. — jorndoe

Yes they have, but mostly on the basis of the supremacy of Western technology and doctrine. Today the power balance is different, and of course most important of all, the United States may be too occupied elsewhere to stage a large intervention in the case things go south.

Many of Israel's regional rivals are no longer militarily naive and backwards. They have figured out the American (and thus the Israeli) way of war, and have found ways to combat it, mostly through asymmetric warfare.

To put it in simple terms, if we compare Israel's population with that of its neighbors, we can only conclude that once those neighbors get even remotely competent Israel will stand no chance in a military engagement.

And the simple fact is that the negotiations didn't go further. The war continued. And now Putin is quite hopeful that he will win. This is just speculation as we didn't go that extra mile. — ssu

We have various neutral sources stating that the negotiations were blocked by the West. So the evidence is out there. Whether you find it convicing is up to you.

To me it's cut and dry, and there is little doubt in my mind.

Of course there is reason to assume it can help Biden. Israel wants the US to go to war with Iran. Israel holds great sway in American domestic politics.

This isn't rocket science.

Yemen is also a possible candidate for the hail mary war.

Sure, why not.

Are you claiming that if not for an election we would not go to war against Iran? — Fooloso4

It's no secret that the neocons and Israel want the US to go to war with Iran. The MIC wants war, period - any war will do.

And Joe wants to get re-elected. Or, more accurate, the people who control Joe don't want Trump to be elected.

It's one of those perfect storms of perverse incentives brewing. A shit blizzard, if you will.

Is what Iran and its allies doing of no consequence? — Fooloso4

It might be of consequence, but going to war with Iran is another type of crazy. The US would get stuck in the worst quagmire thinkable, not to mention what it would do to the rest of the Middle-East, and it would dumpster what is left of the US empire in a single swoop.

This would only be a successful strategy if Congress approves the war. Does this mean that Congress wants to salvage his chances? — Fooloso4

I don't know who controls congress. Probably it's a melange of the worst lobbies imaginable, and thus war with Iran to save Biden's campaign is definitely in the cards.

If this is a winning strategy wouldn't Trump also advocate for war? — Fooloso4

Nah, Trump is running squarely against the neocon establishment with his isolationism. It was never really an option for him. Besides, why would they choose wild card Trump over puppet Joe?

While people are bickering over a border, I'm just waiting for Sleepy Joe to go to war with Iran and blow up the Middle-East to salvage his chances at this election. :lol:

In a sense we have reached a pivotal point here in the development of civilisation. Do we finally grow up and act as a global community to help these people out and build a stronger United Nations. Or do we fail again, remain divided, tribal, to sit by and watch the continual spread of failed states across the world. — Punshhh

I think there indeed was an opportunity for a real shift, but in my opinion that window has closed

The US during its 30 year period of hegemony simply continued its zero-sum politics, using the "rules-based order" to its advantage, and thereby completely destroying the legitimacy of said rules-based order.*

Now the counterbalancing powers (Russia, China, Iran, etc.) have thrown down the gauntlet and said: "If you're not going to follow the rules, neither will we."

Therefore I think that ship has sailed. The UN will continue to serve an important function as it has, but mostly as a reflection of state power and policy rather than a shaper of geopolitics.


*Note how the US/Israel are now attempting to delegitimize the UN as revenge for the ICJ ruling.

It would be very strange for the ICJ to demand a cease-fire for several reasons.


First, this is an interim ruling - not a definitive ruling. Basically the court has said that, based on the South African case, there is reason to believe Israel may be planning and/or perpetrating a genocide. Had the court felt there was no such indication, the case would have been dismissed.

Second, under the conditions of the Gaza war a decision for a cease-fire should be taken in the UN Security Council, even for so simple a reason as that the UN has no way to impose a cease-fire without overwhelming international support and agreement of the warring parties.

Third, calling for a cease-fire may call into question the court's impartiality.


I think the court was wise in its decision not to call for a cease-fire. The message that the Israeli government may indeed be harboring genocidal intentions towards Gaza is strong enough on its own.

But the first link doesn't give this kind of "smoking gun" argument: — ssu

There was already a lot evidence for the blocked negotiations in March/April, and this is simply another piece to add to that pile.

Chalyi doesn't mention who blocked the negotiations, or why. Probably because he will have to fear for his life is he says too much (notice that Arestovych is also afraid to talk about who did it). But we have plenty of evidence who it might have been from the various other sources.

If you're expecting definitive evidence, obviously that is never coming. That's simply not how these types of things work. Biden isn't going to give us a statement admitting to the United States' many crimes. States always ensure they have "plausible deniability". However, as the list of contrary evidence grows, the plausibility of said deniability continues to shrink.

For example, in an official capacity the US probably still maintains it didn't base its wars in Vietnam and Iraq on construed evidence, but everybody with a brain knows that they did.

Ultimately it's up to you whether you continue to give these states the benefit of the doubt. I choose to go where the evidence points.

It's impossible to say what is going on on the ground in Gaza currently, but I've been skeptical about Israel's chances of success, and prior to the the start of Israel's operation the military analysts I have heard were skeptical too. Today most seem in agreement that Israel has not yet managed to deliver a serious blow to Hamas.

But ultimately Hamas is a small fish, and Israel is in a no-win situation.

If it manages to crush Hamas, it's only a matter of time until another organisation takes its place.

Even if Israel does the unthinkable and ethnically cleanses Gaza, it will not solve its problems.

As I said, I'm not playing the game of who gets to claim the moral high ground.

It goes without saying that neither side deserves any prizes in that regard.

Then a decent respect for those rights ought call for the inclusion of some acknowledgement of them and the attacks on them. For the rest, I agree.

Edit: As to the VC and the Taliban, the VC do not belong in this group - a separate discussion. But in glossing over who and what they are - e.g., the Taliban - you implicitly excuse them. And excusing without cause is imo a great mistake. Aesop covered this in his fable of the frog and the scorpion crossing the river, and no doubt a story even older than that. — tim wood

Resistance movements are simply a result of an occupation. Their tactics are tried and true, and yes, brutal. Sadly, brutal are also the tactics of the occupier and this is certainly true for Israel's treatment of the Palestinians.

I'm not excusing anyone. I'm just not playing the game of who gets to claim the moral high ground. I think both sides have acted awfully, and at some point it is just a vicious cycle where there are no "good guys" and "bad guys" anymore. There are a lot of innocent people stuck in the cross-fire though.

But it is clear that Israel controls Greater Israel and millions of Palestinians live under Israeli occupation - not the other way around.

do the Israelis possess any right to be where they are? — tim wood

Of course. This has nothing to do with Israel's right to exist.

What I'm laying out is how Israel can continue to exist, or, if it stays on the road it is on, can cease to exist.

I like Israel, actually. I visited Israel, Jerusalem, the Golan Heights and the West Bank as part of an academic tour in 2019. It was very eye-opening, and despite the fact that I like the country, it was also clear to me that the situation there as it is now simply cannot persist.

Did history not exist before the last twenty years? — schopenhauer1

We can go back further if you'd like.

Israel's refusal to enact and sabotage of UNSC resolutions towards a two-state solution started all the way back in 1967.

Or would you like to talk about the ethnic cleansing that took place in 1948?

Really! You hold all the cards, yet I bomb your restaurants and buses, murder and outrage your people, wage wars against you, make clear I want you dead and gone and in any pause still fire rockets at you and commit any mayhem I can. And you think you hold the cards? Just who do you think is in control of the chaos, making it happen? If I bash you on the snout with a club, is it the fault/cause/responsibility of your nose? Are you a villain if you defend your nose? Have you nothing at all to say about the depredations by the Palestinians and their friends? — tim wood

Not really. Hamas acts in the way resistance movements always act. Like the Viet Cong, the Taliban, etc. It's a given. Israel won't be the first nation to find that out that moral whinging won't change the facts on the ground.

Israel on the other hand has had, certainly since 1991, the world's most powerful nation on its side and could have solved this situation if it wanted to. Israel of course sabotaged the solutions. Most notably it sabotaged the two-state solution which it was called upon to enact via (legally binding) UNSC resolutions. This sabotage is explicitly mentioned in the relevant UNSC resolutions.

So yes, Israel holds all the cards for a solution, but refuses to act, instead opting for hard liners like Netanyahu in the hopes that one day the Palestinians will magically disappear. Remarkably foolish and worthy of the harshest criticism.

And the consequence of ignoring their role is to reduce them, implicitly making them just vermin and rats, vicious and beyond any possible responsibility, not even worth mentioning. And further implying your own thoughts are suspect or compromised, being victim to clever, unconscionable, very costly propaganda. — tim wood

What a dumb comment.

But you're right, the Israelis have got to do or die. But what right you to criticize what under necessity they have to do?! — tim wood

They're not doing what is necessary. They're digging themselves deeper into a hole with every bomb they drop on Gaza.

There is sense to your proposition that existentially the Jews have got to figure it out. — tim wood

Israel controls Greater Israel. There are currently millions of Palestinians under illegal Israeli occupation. So yes, obviously they're the ones who have to figure it out. They're also the ones who have held all the cards for the past 40 years. Finally, they're the ones who stand most to lose, because all Hamas has to do is hang on until the tables eventually turn, and that is inevitable given enough time. (Though with US power declining, that time is ticking away rapidly).

So yes, Israel has got to figure something out if it knows what is good for them. Things aren't going to be pretty for Israel if it cannot find a rapprochement before large Arab nations take back control of the Middle-East after a receding American empire.

Yeah I know you think Hamas and Leftist supporters are super cool nihilists that are “gonna make Israel look bad” in an apocalyptic frenzy. — schopenhauer1

This is just your bias. Yes, I get you don’t see a problem with Hamas it seems, only Israel. — schopenhauer1

These accusations are weak.

Apparently I care enough to warn of the danger Israel is putting itself in down the line.

I'd love to hear your arguments for why I am needlessly fear-mongering, but don't come to me with these accusations of bias.

The Israeli’s won’t agree to this because it will result in Palestinians (Arabs) becoming elected into government at some stage. Due to the Palestinian population growing faster than the Jewish population. — Punshhh

I'm well aware that this is a problem - perhaps the central problem. Equal rights for Palestinians is not compatible with the idea of a Jewish nation state.

In my opinion, this simply means the idea of Israel as a Jewish nation state needs to be revamped. Clinging onto that idea means apartheid, ethnic cleansing or worse, and all of those options lead to complete isolation of Israel in the long run, which in turn will leads to its downfall.

However unappealing it might be for some people in Israel to have to change its identity, it's simply the only option if it wants to continue its existence. It also happens to be a just option: Israel solves its issue of strategic vulnerability, and in return for the territory grants the Palestinian people equal rights.

Is it the dream solution for either side? No. But it's infinitely more workable than the mess they're in now.

Remember, you and Benkei are the ones who threw out debates of morality when you decided that means don’t matter if the cause is something you think is just. — schopenhauer1

I think you've got it wrong. I would never argue that.

My arguments have not really been moral in nature, but pragmatic and realistic. Morality just isn't a suitable lens to view the actions of states, even if I can't help but feel some moral indignation at times. (Sue me)

The Israelis have to allow for an exit ramp on the other side. Hamas has to figure out if its armed struggle is more important than the lives of its people. And there's the kicker. This is where, whatever you think its failings are, Israel will always win. — schopenhauer1

This is where we are fundamentally in disagreement.

Israel has most to lose.

How do you suppose a nation of a couple million keeps itself afloat once US power in the region wanes? Especially when it's already fighting an insurgency against a number equal to its own population on its own turf?!

It's sowing the seeds of its own destruction, because once the balance of power shifts, it is going to be faced with the bill of decades of belligerence.

Do you not see this?

To put it in simple terms, Israel is fucked if it fails to find some form of rapprochement. Hamas on the other hand, as is typical for resistance movements, just needs to survive until inevitably some day the tables turn.

I would argue it's a bit more complicated than that.

Israel's land grab of 1967, while illegal, can reasonably understood as Israel attempting to find strategic security in a geopolitical environment which was volatile and overtly hostile.

That decision was, in hindsight, extremely fool-hardy and still haunts them today. It is essentially the root of Israel's worst perpetrations, because from 1967 onward it became the belligerent occupier of millions of people.

Over time, the 1967 annexations have deteriorated (rather than strengthened) Israel's security position. How to go back on these decisions half a century after they were made, in a security environment which is almost worse than it was in 1967?

From an Israeli perspective, the two-state solution would essentially birth a nation (Palestine) which is (understandably) extremely hostile towards Israel. It also puts Israel in a strategically compromised position due to having a hostile nation right in the center of its territory. The distance between the West Bank and Tel Aviv is only some 70 kilometers. The distance between the West Bank and the Mediterranean is even shorter in some places.

There's more to this than base territorial greed, however in hindsight we cannot but acknowledge that this decision has in no way improved Israeli security, and might in fact be an anchor that eventually will pull it under.


As I've argued before, I believe the only way forward is to give Palestinians equal rights, forget the two-state solution, and turn Israel as it is now into a nation where both peoples can live together.

But this would require Israel to relinquish its vision of being a Jewish nation state, which understandably is a very bitter pill to swallow for some, the Zionist elite especially, but it is simply not feasible anymore under the conditions it has created in 1967.

While I think such a solution is perfectly realistic, I think the will to go there is absent from the Israeli elite. This might change as Netanyahu is ousted and hopefully makes way for more level-headed policies.

In my view, Israel's only hope is finding a rapprochement, but the time to accomplish it is ticking. For now the US still holds a lot of power internationally, and that power can be used to accomodate a rapprochement in a stable fashion. In ten, twenty years, I think this window of opportunity will be closed as well.

So going back to my main point, if one was to be indifferent or "that's what Israel gets" regarding this latest round of killings/barbarism, then especially when it comes to this war, we can no longer really discuss in terms of morality, but in terms of power. — schopenhauer1

That's what I've been doing.

I've given you reasons for why Israel is not acting in its own self-interest. For 75 years their policies have failed, utterly, to produce a security situation that Israel can build on for the future.

It can whinge all day about how others are responsible for that failure, but the end result is that Israel is in an extremely precarious position and its own actions are making it evermore precarious.

Further, it has been in a priviledged position where through US hegemony it can get away with much of its misbehavior. That situation will inevitably change some day, and Israel will have to rely on its own diplomatic ties with its neighbors, who are now utterly estranged from it through Israel's decades-long belligerence, and the only reason they aren't on overtly hostile footing is due to American 'gun boat diplomacy'.

And again, if Israel believes it can solve its security problem by apartheid, ethnic cleansing or worse, then it is missing the forest for the trees. Such actions will alienate it from the rest of the world, including, importantly, it's immediate neighbors.

Israel cannot be secure without normal relations with its neighbors, which requires it to find an acceptable solution to the Palestinian problem.


You use Genghis Khan as an example, but, unlike Israel, the Mongolian Empire actually had extreme amounts of power. Israel might have power over the Palestinian territories and Hamas, but compared to its neighbors Israel is not strong at all. For one, because of simple metrics like population and geographics, and secondly because Israel's treatment of the Palestinian people is giving its neighbors common cause against it.

If you think Israel can go around 'acting like Genghis Khan' you are sadly mistaken. Hamas is a small fish compared to Israel's regional rivals. Israel would much sooner find itself on the receiving end of a new 'Genghis Khan' when a Middle-East fractured by the US reunites under a new regional hegemon.


It might be worth emphasizing that a realist approach (which focuses on power) does not mean one can go around ignoring other nations' opinions when those opinions are in fact extremely important to one's own security. Realism is about security as much as it is about power, and clearly from a realist approach Israel is not doing well.

I'd say the significance of this ruling lies in the fact that the ICJ has not dismissed the case and is essentially acknowledging there is a present risk of genocide being committed by Israel.

Oleksandr Chalyi Interview / Panel (Former Ukrainian ambassador and diplomat, partook in the March/April negotiations)

Arestovych Interview (Zelensky's former spokesperson)

________________________

That's a big "if" when Putin hadn't accepted the terms. — ssu

Chalyi said this about it:

To my mind, this is my personal view, Putin within one week of the start of his aggression on 24th February very quickly understood he had made a mistake, and tried to do everything possible to conclude an agreement with Ukraine.

It was his personal decision to accept the text of the Istanbul communiqué. — Oleksandr Chalyi

The idea that Russia was open for something else as "peace" than all it's objectives accepted: puppet regime, eastern Ukraine with land corridor to Crimea and perhaps also Odessa is questionable. — ssu

I've linked you the Ukrainian former officials, one of whom was part of the Ukrainian delegation involved with the negotiations, telling us that the agreement as per the Istanbul communiqué was genuine, and to quote Chalyi, was a "very real compromise." Furthermore, the Ukrainians themselves confirm that NATO and Ukrainian neutrality was Russia's main concern.

You'll have to come to terms with the fact that this happened - Russia and Ukraine were ready for peace, but the US and the UK pushed for war.

And you can view the terms of the communiqué yourself, and see that it doesn't match up with your view.

Whatever fig leaf you are clinging on, [...] — ssu

The only ones clinging onto fig leaves are those who, understandably, have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that the West (read: the US and UK) rejected peace and chose prolonged war over the backs of the Ukrainians.

Yet the fact is that the US Middle East policy is a train wreck. Likely sooner or later US is forced out of Iraq, perhaps as with low media coverage like France left the Sahel. If nobody makes a big issue about it in the media, perhaps people won't notice. — ssu

Yep, and unlike the US, Israel cannot retreat across an ocean and pretend nothing ever happened. It will be stuck in the middle of said trainwreck.

I think people grossly underestimate how dire this situation can become.

When I point out the realities of a situation, that doesn't mean nihilism, that means realism.

You can believe Hamas should not do what it does, but it will. We have thousands of years of history that is full with situations like these, and they all transpire in the same way.

The problem for Israel is that the majority of the world (as evidenced by not-so irrelevant UNGA resolutions) is no longer on its side, and that Israel - not Hamas - stands to lose most.

If Israel wants to use Hamas' behavior to excuse its own brutality it can, but it is missing the forest for the trees. It will end up alienating the rest of the region, perhaps even the rest of the world, and allow an endless breeding ground for extremism.

I'll ask again, what happens when the US retreats to its island, and another regional power takes over the dominant role in the Middle-East? You think they will be impressed by a meek "tu quoque" when Israel will be finally held to account for its decades-long oppression?

I don’t want to play a sport with you, if raping, cutting heads off people and ransoming it back to relatives, praising children for butchering x nimber of Jews and burning people is resistance, I’ll pass on your idea of competition. — schopenhauer1

Of course that's resistance. It's hardly anything new in terms of what resistance movements have gotten up to historically.

You can argue for a moral high ground, but it won't make any difference. The reality is that Hamas and the Palestinian problem exists, and that it is not going away through any of Israel's current actions.

The UN is irrelevant and is used as whatever X person's cudgel is against the US/Israel. — schopenhauer1

Even if you truly believe that, UN votings clearly show opinion on Israel is shifting, and that it and the US are increasingly more isolated. That is not irrelevant. That is the writing on the wall.

Having Palestinian complete control over the hill-country of the West Bank IS a strategic concern, and having a 15 mile corridor between two (obviously hostile) regions IS a security concern. Besides just that Benkei thinks this is how it should work, how would Israel know that Palestine would simply cease all hostilities if Israel completely left the West Bank and Gaza? What if instead of what you suggest (that Palestine is now whole, so has no reason to fight), it keeps fighting, but now from a much more forward position? — schopenhauer1

Nothing Israel is doing and has been doing is changing its strategic position. In fact, it's actually worsening its position in the region significantly.

Israel should hedge its bets while the West is still relatively in control.

What do you think will happen when the US retreats to its island and the Middle-East falls out of its control? We are rapidly approaching that point.

In a way, I view the conflict as a system. Hamas has to give back the prisoners. They have to think of the lives of their own citizens. If Israel is going to fully go after Hamas, no matter the cost to the Palestinian side, and they have the ability to do this... If Palestinian leadership cared about their citizens, they would give up the fight, give back the prisoners, to prevent further destruction of their people.

Then, the US, has to essentially give Israel an ultimatum (once Hamas leadership is defeated), that they must have an international coalition along with a reformed PA rule Gaza (with the understanding that indeed the Gazans will have to de-radicalize and stop the cycle), or aid is halted, as Israel cannot indefinitely rule Gaza without it contributing to the further dissolution of a two-state solution and continue the world outcry against the occupation.

And for those who excuse Hamas' tactics because they are the "underdogs".. then it's a wash because then anything Israel does is just to over-power Hamas' brutality with their own power.. and so it's just simply power against power. It becomes nihilism all around and those with more power wins, whatever your conflation of the two sides might be.

So this being a system, they have to de-escalate by looking at it from the two sides.. Like when there are two people who have to turn a key to launch a nuke, the two sides have to play their part. Hamas would first have to give a shit about their own people. That key is harder to turn. — schopenhauer1

Right.

Hamas has to stop its resistance, and then the US has to impose an ultimatum to force Israel to adopt the two-state solutoin?

First, Hamas isn't going to stop its resistance until Israel shows willingness. Until then, resistance is the only leverage Hamas has.

Second, the US can't impose anything on Israel, let alone a decision so large as the two-state solution. Even if the US managed it politically, Israel would simply refuse to carry it out, just as Israel refused to carry out the long list of UNSC resolutions.

Third, Israel made a two-state solution utterly impossible through its settlement policy, probably intentionally so.


Bottomline, this isn't dealing with reality. This is a blueprint for never solving the conflict, which is exactly what Israel has foolishly done for the past 60-or-so years.

How long can Israel continue to ignore reality? Ten, twenty years maybe? Some time in the near future Israel will no longer be the dominant force in the Middle-East, and conditions will be imposed upon Israel which it can only hope are a little more merciful than its own methods.