I have justification for my claim, admittedly, weak, but something. You have nothing. — T Clark
No. We are on equal footing. Which I pointed out (I appreciate you at least meeting 1/3 of the way there). We, neither, could access good enough information to
defend our positions strongly, but we both have
good reason to think the way we think. There is no need to interrogate that further, given no basis for comparison could be made out in a way that would be helpful. No?
We’re not going to get any closer to agreement — T Clark
Yeah, for sure. If you'd like, we can try to re-structure how we're talking to restrict it to Western countries/social structures/expectations.
I think my description is accurate. It may simply be that the number is still alarming for you. That's also fine. But there is clearly no large group feeling the way you say. Although, and this is definitely a bit weak, I would posit that plenty of religious people will make
claims of this kind, but not actually believe it. Again, weak. Just a thought.. Most people aren't predisposed to be bigoted (in the West).
I didn’t say that and you know that’s not what I’m talking about. We’ve had the same kind of discussion in the past with you claiming that there is no longer significant discrimination against Black people here. This is just more of the same. Again, we’re not going to do any better than this, so let’s leave it. — T Clark
Huh. It strikes me that (for both of those issues) that would be a good reason to sit down and talk? It can't be that both of us are right. I am interested in that, personally. Either way ,i appreciate a fully civil resolution to those exchanges. I just like to talk..
Assuming I’m doing my math correctly, which is by no means certain, this comes to fewer than 800 incarcerations a year in the US out of a total of about 60,000. — T Clark
To discuss both issues: No, i'm not being cute, and I would appreciate you resiling from the propensity to assume motivation. I said exactly what I meant to say, and it looks, based on your reply, that I was
probably right. Looking at numbers in the USA
as raw numbers is disingenuous. The correct metric would not be "how many". It would be two
other things:
How many vs how many
not (i.e how many
of the group 'trans' tend to be arrested or convicted of a crime. The other, would be a control group: Non-trans males (I want to be explicitly clear: all of hte issues I could argue about when it comes to trans being in any way 'dangerous' or whatever, have to do with being
male. Not trans. It is the same discussion we have to have about non-trans males. Being 'a man' doesn't give us anything to discuss in these terms).
The numbers i've looked at, for reasons that should probably be obvious, are in the UK. So, with that, i'll continue responding, but note that I may have to come back with
different numbers as I'm not fully across the US situation with this exact issue.
For the purposes of my calculations above, I assumed this was correct, although I’m skeptical. That information is not available for the US. Can you provide the documentation for the UK? — T Clark
I appreciate that. I crunched the numbers directly from a Government prison population survey from, I think, 2022. This is all on a sticky note on my computer at home - apologies I can't simply be direct with that information. I've just done a shallow dive and re-found another doc -
this (which was not my initial source, ftr), from which I can glean some pretty relevant passages:
"MOJ stats show 76 of the 129 male-born prisoners identifying as transgender (not counting
any with GRCs) have at least 1 conviction of sexual offence. This includes 36 convictions for
rape and 10 for attempted rape. These are clearly male type crimes (rape is defined as
penetration with a penis)."
"76 sex offenders out of 129 transwomen =
58.9%
125 sex offenders out of 3812 women in prison = 3.3%
13234 sex offenders out of 78781 men in prison =
16.8%"
The piece (by quote)also points out that the statistics
do not count those with a GRC as trans. Which is.. legally, and socially bizarre (that's not a moral complaint. Administrative) given that several will also be part of those numbers, and given how low they are each single case is significant.
There is also addressed the problem of deceit (although, this isn't a main limb for me):
"The converse is the ever-increasing tide of referrals of patients in prison serving long
or indeterminate sentences for serious sexual offences. These vastly outnumber the
number of prisoners incarcerated for more ordinary, non-sexual, offences. It has been
rather naïvely suggested that nobody would seek to pretend transsexual status in
prison if this were not actually the case. " - British Association of Gender Identity Specialists to the Transgender Equality Inquiry’ (2015)
Putting aside some of the more nuanced stuff there, we can see quite clearly that I am either close to the mark, or bang on with my analysis in general(although, I clearly and unsure whether this is hte data set I used at the time so .. pinch of salt..). I really wish I had just emailed my work-self the other stuff months ago when I presented it to someone else in another thread. I apologise for that.
I acknowledge, understand and do not argue with the fact that we're talking about an extremely small population. We're talking about negligible numbers of offenders. But if those offenders, as a class, are
more likely to commit these crimes we want to know and take that into account. We would for any other group which presented this way. And in fact, it's getting, socially, to the point where people are swinging back around to bigotry because of the suppression of discussion on the topic (i here think immediately of the current 'black fatigue' trend - although, I most often see that from black people, not whites). I am not saying you're doing this, I'm just taking the opportunity in conversation with someone pretty much fully civil, to say thse things.
This is literally, obviously, and unarguably true. — T Clark
While I acknowledge what you're saying, and I definitely could have been clearer about where I believe you're massaging things, it is pretty damn clear that
being male is the problem. Not being cisgender. Given that trans women are more likely (it seems) to commit a crime against a female, we're looking at (in some views) male + mental aberration (and potential one tied to sexuality, i guess). That all stands to reason, and there's no point mentioning 'cis gender' as it does nothing to change the categories we need.
I appreciate you.