"People seem to need some kind of "religion" on which to organize their experiences, hopes, aspirations, disappointments, failures, dreams, nightmares, tedious or exciting experiences, and so on. I do disagree with you that "religion" is obsolete."
Need is an interesting word choice; it suggests people can not have those things without Religion. I strongly disagree with this but I only have anecdotal evidence for the contrary so I admit it is a fair position to hold.
"It isn't obsolete because human beings have not changed in fundamental ways in the last couple hundred thousand years and we haven't achieved super-rationality. It doesn't look like super-rationality is just around the corner, either. So... religion of some sort is probably going to last quite a while yet."
I agree that we have not achieved super-rationality, nor our we close and nor will science alone be enough to get us there. However, since science is an extension of Religion (that is to say in the pursuit of explaining the universe Religion built the foundations on which scientific pursuit is built) it would naturally replace Religion as a means of expanding our understanding by giving us a means to do so with measurable accuracy. This is an objectively superior way of studying the universe.
Also note that Religion has only lasted so long by indoctrinating people into believing it as the ultimate truth despite lacking tangible evidence and threatening eternal punishment to anyone that questions "God's Words". This is an artificial way of extending the lifespan of Religion.
The rest of your post I agree with. I think the process of replacing Religion is underway but, as I pointed out, Religion has an effective way of slowing that process down, to a halt if left unchecked. What will replace it in the end is entirely up for grabs, I guess.
Personally I think by teaching people critical thinking skills early in life, as opposed to just telling them what is "true" to pass an exam, is the best way to inspire the kind of innovation towards problem solving that will lead to living conditions improving the world over. Religious ideology is antithetical to this pursuit. Most cultural and political issues are, in my opinion, at least partially to blame for the rigid thinking that is causing a lot of issues in the political sphere. That doesn't just end with recognized Religions organisations like Christianity. I have seen this thinking in Atheist communities, as Theists love to point out, as well as others. It is a hard habit to crack but in time I think it is inevitable.