The main criticism from economists today is not about incoherence. It's that it was rolled out haphazardly so as to maximize uncertainty.

I guess the question is whether there was a safer way to do it. Either way, we only have elections every 4 years, so we can't just vote him out.

You keep bringing it up. — Paine

Not to you.

read that essay at your behest. It clarifies a lot of some people's thinking: Engineering social change. — Paine

I did not ask you to read it.

I mean, Vance strikes me as incredibly opportunistic and unlikable, but he would surely be an improvement over the chaos of Trump. He would be preferable if only because he is less charismatic and so less able to get by on sheer bluster. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Read Dark Enlightenment and reassess.

Voters need to feel like it’s a disaster. That’s the only way to be rid of Trump. — Joshs

I developed a full blown case of Stockholm syndrome when I realized Vance will be elected next. I advise you do the same.

No, it was a feeble joke. I was just teasing your two cents self-valuation. — unenlightened

Oh! :smile:

but businesses don’t expect Black Swan events to be caused by the policy whims of a dictator, which is why there is little urge to invest in authoritarian regimes where policy changes on a dime. — Joshs

Money is blind. It will happily take up with dictators when the bottom line says it should.

There may be a temporary increase in demand, but in the longer term American companies will not be able to compete with foreign companies who re-assemble cheaper supply chains excluding the U.S. — Joshs

The US has a pretty big market of its own. It's well versed in automated manufacturing. It has abundant natural resources and a big ass military to protect its shores.

I'm not predicting rosy days, I'm just saying an emotionally neutral viewpoint is not predicting disaster. Maybe a recession.

It’s impossible for a company to invest in expansion if there isn’t predictability over a 5 year horizon — Joshs

Black swan events happen often enough that every company takes risks to expand. But if anything, a lot of American companies should look for an increase in demand resulting from the tariffs. Agriculture and luxury goods are the ones likely to be hurting.

I have been obsessively reading everything I can get my hands on by economists, both liberal and conservative. None of them are foolish enough to ‘declare’ a recession before it begins, but there is a consensus that what is happening now is a profound shock to the global economy the likes of which hasn’t been seen in 95 years. — Joshs

I guess I'm looking forward to seeing how it works out. Crises can be good things, but inviting crisis is not something a wise person would do.

That said, one expert opinion is that recession probably wouldn't be caused directly by the tariffs, but rather by the fear inspired by them. If people put off buying durable goods out of fear, that can actually bring on a recession.

Do check out Reddit if you're looking to talk to a professional or an academic. They're usually friendly and generous with explanations.

Have you spoken with an expert in economics or geopolitics about these predictions? There are a number of educated opinions on Reddit, although the moderator on AskEconomics just locked the thread because it was getting too rambunctious.

And I hope you will also be inspired, frank to raise your prices to at least a dime — unenlightened

Do you feel like I don't contribute substantially? I'm asking because I'm thinking of just avoiding political discussions going forward. On this forum anyway.

My two cents worth is that the Trump thread inevitably becomes about venting. There's a certain amount of baloney spouted by people on either side of the issue. It's just the nature of the topic, I think. We don't have an historical vantage point on events, so there's a limit to the depth with which we can analyze it. I'm hoping you ultimately decide to put it back in the lounge.

Your question presumes some higher law constraining the actions of the entity that's responsible for global trade in the first place. There is no such authority.

Why wouldn't you expect half of the world's population to produce half of the stuff and get half of the profits? — Banno

Why shouldn't we have robots produce everything and use the profits to avert climate change?

I see no world where Vance becomes president because either Trump succeeds in dismantling US democracy in which case he'll just stay in until he dies, or the democratic process continues as usual in which case given what we've been seeing from this administration means Vance gets annihilated electorally. The Democrats can run a corpse and they will win. They did the last time and hopefully they won't the next time. — Mr Bee

You may be right. I doubt it though.

The JOLTS jobs numbers were up. Powell is talking rate cuts. The sky hasn't fallen yet. But I did start looking at local printing costs (I make a lot of custom t-shirts). The locals are around 10x the cost of the same printing from China. It's higher quality here, but still. Damn.

With regard to the country turning on Trump, if they have an alternative, maybe. If the Democrats run AOC next time, Vance will be the president. He'll definitely keep some of Trumps policies.

It takes minutes to impose tariffs, but 5 to 10 years to build a factory. — Punshhh

Trump will probably be followed by Vance, unless a Democratic superstar emerges. And even if a Democratic president follows, remember, Biden didn't rescind the tariffs from the first Trump administration, in fact he added to them. Completely exposing American labor to competition with China was a pretty brutal thing to do. The consent to do that again would have to be manufactured (to garble one of the chapter titles of David Harvey's book on neoliberalism).

The left died. This is what's taking its place.

Yes. It's a challenge.

The futures markets say no bueno.

In order to doubt anything, one must rely on that which is beyond doubt. In other words, one cannot exit all language games and still be capable of doubting. — Joshs

Apparently you can't doubt that you exist (in some sense).

What are the philosophical / epistemological / logical grounds for hinge propositions being exempt from doubt? — Corvus

I guess you could doubt them, you just exit the language game when you do.

It’s “liberation day”. Trump’s tariff gamble begins and we’ll find out soon enough whether it pays off or sends the world into another depression. — NOS4A2

What's the metric for success exactly?

But Frank, who pays the costs and who gets the benefits?

Are they the same people? — Agree-to-Disagree

This touches on the philosophical conundrum I mentioned earlier. How do we plan for our children?

Some people plan for their welfare of their children and some don't.

I'm having an alright day. — BitconnectCarlos

Good. Me too.

Both Bitconnect and Tzeentch are having a permanently bad day.

Wow. That's clear enough.

Your point is well taken that it's precarious for any country to try to go it alone. The world we live in is a result of integration and we take that for granted until it's gone. The only extra point I would make is that NAFTA and other efforts to transfer the locus of economic activity to Wall St. was also a cliff edge. It was just a generation ago, so people don't remember the pain of mass lay offs and whole industries just disappearing. Americans sat helplessly watching their jobs going overseas. We were independent. That's the problem with the argument that the status quo grew naturally. It didn't. It was contrived, and for a very specific reason.

But I am optimistic that technology and/or AI will save us from reverting to the stone age. — Agree-to-Disagree

It's just isolated groups that lose skills.

Manufacturing has stagnated too, due to lack of skilled workers and the inability for manufacturers to truly operate from home in an interconnected world with just in time supply lines etc. — Punshhh

Doesn't the UK do automated manufacturing? Wouldn't that help the situation?

Some people will probably revert back to the stone age. People who are isolated will.

If American manufacturers aren't competing with the outside World, why would they have to extensively invest in technology and focus on competitiveness? — ssu

Have you ever heard of IBM?

What's being undone is Globalization. — ssu

Correct.

Or people will stop eating avocados — Benkei

They will stop eating avocados temporarily, but it's a very popular product in the US. I think demand will persist until American farmers start making them.

And GE might find it more efficient to sell in other countries than the US. Instead of moving production they change their logistics. — Benkei

They moved to Juarez after NAFTA specifically to take advantage of cheaper labor there. If tariffs eliminate that advantage, they'll likely come back to somewhere in the US.

If it would've been feasible to produce locally at a competitive price, it would already be happening. — Benkei

American farmers can't compete with Mexican farmers. A leftist would say that was the whole point of NAFTA: to cripple American labor and finally stomp out the power of American unions. In other words, what many don't understand is that increasing tariffs, especially on Mexico and Canada, is just going back to the way it was before NAFTA.

I'm not saying there are any guarantees that things will go the way Trump and Vance imagine, I'm just noting, especially to other Americans, that this is not rightist. The goal here is actually leftist, but American leftism died. That's what makes the present situation pretty fascinating.

If it doesn’t work we can close the door on economic populism. — NOS4A2

I doubt it. Populism was born to be hi-jacked.

The only way they can pull it off, as far as I can see, is if they do massive cuts to taxes, regulation, and spending to offset the cost of the tariff on consumers — NOS4A2

They're talking about stagflation again. The fed didn't lower rates last go-round.

The idea is that when Mexican avocados become too expensive, Texan farmers will have a reason to devote some land to them. When the electronic thingy GE is presently making in Juarez becomes too expensive, GE will pull manufacturing of the item back within American borders.

Since most American manufacturing will be automated, American robot manufacturing will take off, and the network of homegrown stuff will continue to grow in a self reinforcing way.

What's being undone here is neo-liberalism.

The Fair Trade concept is definitely interventionist, but according to them it’s aimed to produce the conditions for free trade. — NOS4A2

I didn't realize they'd said this. I'd heard Vance echoing stuff from Trump's previous presidential campaign, about jobs. It's hard to imagine Trump even caring about free trade. That's such an abstract goal.

One of the many solutions offered for global warming involved seeding clouds. It would be intentional pollution. It may still be on the table.

Vance's predictions that American manufacturing is coming back from the grave indicates a very interventionist, heading toward collectivist behavior on the part of the Executive. The status quo was set out by hardline laissez-faire dudes. I mean, the last time the US government was on the side of US manufacturing was never. If they carry it through and resist falling into corruption, this will be a big change for the average person. I'm looking forward to seeing what's going to happen with education and healthcare.

Cool. Thanks for your input.

I'm not interested in continuing if this is the level the discussion is at. — Christoffer

I second that. :up:

:up:

Does this mean I can't post a Spacetime video to explain what energy is? I've posted that thing about 5 times already.