Thoughts on Epistemology Post #7 Continuing with paper...
Justified True Belief Plus Understanding: A Wittgensteinian Extension
Samuel L. Naccarato
IX. Certainty and Probability
Few words have caused more confusion in epistemology than certainty. It has been treated as the mark of knowledge, the goal of justification, or the unattainable ideal we must renounce. The trouble is grammatical: certainty is used in several distinct ways, and philosophy has often blurred them together. To recover clarity, we must separate these uses and see how each belongs to a different layer of our epistemic life.
The first is subjective certainty—the conviction one feels when doubt no longer presses. It is the inner firmness of belief, the sense that “I just know.” This is a psychological state, not a justification. It may accompany knowledge, but it can also accompany error; history is full of confident mistakes. Subjective certainty belongs to the domain of belief, not knowledge. Within JTB+U, it marks the affective side of commitment but carries no epistemic weight unless joined to public justification and understanding.
The second is hinge certainty—the arational stability that makes doubt and justification possible. These are the propositions, practices, and bodily expectations that stand fast within a form of life: the sense that the world exists, that words retain their meaning, that memory and perception generally hold. Such hinges are not derived from proof but constitute the background that gives proof its sense. They are not known in the ordinary way but shown in our ongoing confidence. To call them certain is to describe their role, not their epistemic status: they belong to the grammar of inquiry, not to its conclusions.
The third is epistemic certainty, which arises when a belief is so well grounded that no available defeater remains. It is the practical summit of justification: defeater-resistant, publicly testable, and secure enough for action. Epistemic certainty is what science and law aim for when they speak of confidence “beyond reasonable doubt.” It is not infallibility but closure within current bounds of evidence. Under JTB+U, epistemic certainty reflects a state in which belief, truth, justification, and understanding converge under active guardrails.
The fourth is absolute certainty, encompassing logical, mathematical, grammatical, and moral necessity—the kinds of truth that define the boundaries of sense itself. “A triangle has three sides,” “Two plus two equals four,” and “All bachelors are unmarried” express such certainty: each is non-empirical, though different in source. Absolute certainty, in the logical and grammatical sense, is conceptual rather than empirical—it belongs to the structure of meaning, not to the flux of experience. Mathematical certainties share this role within a formal grammar of symbols, exhibiting necessity through rule rather than observation. Moral certainties, however, join experience to reasoning. From observed facts—harm, benefit, justice, deprivation—we infer the principles that ought to govern conduct. This knowledge is empirical in origin but normative in conclusion: it rests on evidence about human flourishing and the goods that sustain it. To call murder wrong, for example, is to draw a rational inference from the visible destruction of life’s basic good. Logical and grammatical certainty frame thought; mathematical certainty orders formal reasoning; moral certainty directs action. Each has its own domain, and clarity about their relation preserves both reason and moral sense.
When these four uses blur together, skepticism flourishes. If all knowledge required infallibility or absolute proof, none would survive; if all conviction counted as knowledge, none would be trustworthy. The strength of JTB+U lies in maintaining their distinctions: it grounds knowledge in what is publicly justifiable while acknowledging the deeper hinge-structure that allows justification to function. We act with epistemic certainty against a backdrop of hinge stability, tempered by the awareness that both remain fallible in practice.
Probability enters here as the grammar of humility. To think probabilistically is not to weaken knowledge but to situate it: to treat degrees of confidence as reflections of evidence, not as confessions of doubt. Probability quantifies what understanding already senses—the difference between stronger and weaker grounds. It disciplines belief without surrendering the concept of truth. When properly used, probability expresses the same modesty that hinge awareness teaches: that knowledge is never absolute, yet it can be reliable enough for life.
In this light, certainty and probability are not opposites but coordinates on the same epistemic map. Certainty describes where justification holds firm; probability marks where it shades into openness. The work of epistemology is not to abolish either but to keep them aligned—to preserve confidence without arrogance, and humility without paralysis. Under JTB+U, that alignment becomes a form of understanding: the ability to know how far one’s knowledge reaches and where it must give way to further inquiry.
This structure is already visible in the sciences, which embody JTB+U’s grammar in practice. Observation supplies the sensory route; mathematical and experimental reasoning exemplify logic; replication and peer review enforce public justification; and conceptual understanding binds the whole system together. Scientific progress depends on defeater sensitivity, practice-safety, and the correction of false grounds—the very guardrails that make knowledge reliable across contexts. JTB+U therefore does not compete with science; it clarifies what science has always done. It reveals that the same discipline of justification runs through every field where truth is pursued under shared criteria.
X. Framework vs. Application — The Problem of Error
No epistemic framework is immune to misuse. The failures of individuals or cultures to reason well do not refute the grammar of reasoning itself. Just as a player may blunder without discrediting the rules of chess, the misapplication of justification does not invalidate the structure of JTB+U. It shows only that fallibility is built into the game. A framework can be sound even when its players are not. The proper question is therefore not whether error occurs, but what kind of system allows its recognition and repair.
JTB+U holds precisely because it expects correction. Its guardrails—No-False-Grounds, Practice-Safety, and Defeater Screening—were never meant to guarantee infallibility but to sustain reliability in the long run. They turn epistemology from a search for perfect certainty into a practice of continual calibration. What counts is not that mistakes never happen, but that they can be identified, traced to their source, and rectified without abandoning the pursuit of truth. A theory that cannot accommodate error is not a theory of knowledge but of denial.
Confusion arises when apparent defeaters are mistaken for genuine ones. A discovery that revises a belief does not always falsify the method that produced it. The refinement of scientific models, for example, is not epistemic collapse but epistemic health: the self-correction of a method capable of learning from its own limits. Likewise, moral and cultural progress depends on practices of justification that outgrow their earlier boundaries while preserving the standards that made such revision intelligible. Error, in this sense, is not the opposite of knowledge but its price—the cost of operating in a world that resists simplification.
Framework stability differs from application success. The grammar of JTB+U remains intact even when its users fail to meet its demands. A community may mistake tradition for justification or ideology for truth, yet the failure lies in neglecting the framework, not in the framework itself. To say that a culture “knew” something false is to misuse the word know; knowledge cannot rest on what fails its own criteria. JTB+U retains its authority precisely by excluding such cases—it defines knowledge by the discipline that distinguishes warranted belief from collective conviction.
Reliability, then, is statistical rather than absolute. Knowledge need not work always; it must work more often than not. A belief-forming process counts as reliable when its success rate exceeds chance by the margin of disciplined attention. That threshold varies by context: science demands reproducibility, law demands consistency, ordinary life demands functionality. What unites them is the same structure of public accountability. When those standards erode, justification becomes a gesture without content—a language-game played with empty pieces.
To understand error in this way is to see why epistemology remains indispensable. It teaches how to recognize when reasoning has left its track and how to return without despair. The possibility of error is not a threat to knowledge but its enabling condition: it defines what it means for a belief to stand fast in a world that does not guarantee us success. JTB+U embodies that humility. It neither denies fallibility nor accepts confusion as fate. It makes knowledge corrigible rather than fragile—strong enough to endure mistake, and honest enough to admit it.