1. Climate change is unstoppable.
2. Social collapse will be worldwide, and in the next 10 years or so.
3. This will involve Flooding caused by sea-level rises displacing huge populations, decline in crop yields leading to starvation even in developed countries, collapse of infra-structure, power, clean water particularly.
4. There's fuck all to be done to stop it.
5. So what might we do or think or discuss in the meantime? — unenlightened
Yawn...
Yes, much has been written on this subject:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_cult
Here's a fairly comprehensive list of predicted apocalyptic events, many made by science:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events
For a walk down memory lane, here are some scientific doomsday predictions made at the time of the first Earh Day in 1970:
http://www.aei.org/publication/18-spectacularly-wrong-predictions-made-around-the-time-of-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year-2/
The more interesting phenomenon is how the adherents react when the prophecy fails and how they attempt to maintain their beliefs in light of them being proven wrong. Yours is particularly troubling for adherents because the date is only 10 years (or so) away. Can we declare the paper wrong in 15 years?
Yes, I get it, all these past examples of failed predictions don't prove that this newest version is also wrong. I also realize that if we make such predictions long enough we might eventually be right. But, my very strong hunch here is that we'll be having this same conversation in 10 years (or so), assuming we don't die from something else.
Please talk about climate change with reference to the paper and the evidence within or elsewhere for its claims along with counterevidence, for those who disagree, from other scientific sources. Everything beyond that will be subject to deletion unless there's a very good reason for its inclusion. — Baden
This would be a fair suggestion if scientists had a proven past of avoiding bias and had the ability to divorce themselves from this odd pessimistic psychological phenomenon that leads them to find evidence of eventual final death and destruction. That it is to say, this is not just ad hom mud slinging, nor is it an anti-scientific stance, but it's clear evidence that scientists go horribly wrong when they attempt such future extrapolations. Pretending that scientists are just objective apolitical folks sorting through facts and crunching out numbers is just that - pretending.
Let us also be clear that the paper itself admits to a high degree of speculation and conjecture:
"It is a truism that we do not know what the future will be. But we can see
trends. We do not know if the power of human ingenuity will help
sufficiently to change the environmental trajectory we are on.
Unfortunately, the recent years of innovation, investment and patenting
indicate how human ingenuity has increasingly been channelled into
consumerism and financial engineering. We might pray for time. But the
evidence before us suggests that we are set for disruptive and
uncontrollable levels of climate change, bringing starvation, destruction,
migration, disease and war.
We do not know for certain how disruptive the impacts of climate change
will be or where will be most affected, especially as economic and social
systems will respond in complex ways." pp 13-14.
This comment is fraught with political ideology, concluding as if fact that patent law, capitalistic consumerism, and financial engineering (whatever that is) are interfering with human ingenuity. That certainly sounds like a thesis unto itself, and one hardly universally accepted as true. He then speaks of how me might pray, which I understand is for effect (as if that's all we can now do), but are these the words fitting for a serious scientific discussion or is this more a call to arms?
The author then goes on to say:
"These descriptions may seem overly dramatic. Some readers might
consider them an unacademic form of writing. Which would be an
interesting comment on why we even write at all. I chose the words above
as an attempt to cut through the sense that this topic is purely theoretical.
As we are considering here a situation where the publishers of this journal
would no longer exist, the electricity to read its outputs won’t exist, and a
profession to educate won’t exist, I think it time we break some of the
conventions of this format." p. 14
He doesn't even pretend to be scientific, citing to nothing really, and admitting it's just time to stop being so damn scientific. He then goes on after this to discuss the various psychological forms of denial and other unhelpful ways he thinks people are dealing with this real problem. That is simply not science, but just a lament that people don't accept his claims and are finding ways to thwart our saving of the planet..
I don't even believe this prediction:
"If all the data and analysis turn out to be misleading, and this
society continues nicely for the coming decades, then this article will not
have helped my career." p. 24
Should society continue nicely in the coming decades (and now we moved to decade
s and not just the next 10 years), his career will be fine. From the citations above, it seems clear that damnation cults will always have a role to play in our world.